Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) enters PAR...may threaten Bicol Region [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 13 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #012 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) NOW ENTERING THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
(PAR)...MAY THREATEN THE BICOL REGION AND EASTERN LUZON EARLY NEXT

WEEK.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue tracking west to

slightly WSW for the next 24 hours, becoming a Typhoon with winds of

130 kph late tomorrow. The system is then forecast to turn sharply

to the WNW by early Monday morning, sparing the Bicol Peninsula. The

3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning sharply NW to

NNW-ward as a passing frontal system off SE China breaks the high

pressure ridge north of DOLPHIN. It shall then weaken into a 85-kph

Tropical Storm on Wednesday Dec 17 or Thursday Dec 18 as it traverses

the Northern Philippine Sea. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's
a slight possibilty that DOLPHIN shall continue tracking Westward
passing more or less 100 km to the north of Catanduanes-Camarines
Area on Tuesday but weakening rapidly into a weak Tropical Storm.

This scenario is likely possible if the developing frontal system off

SE China is not strong enough to break the high pressure ridge north

of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation slowly improving with the development

of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Its rain bands is not yet affecting

any major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up
to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations
of up to 200 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) SAT 13 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.0º N...LONGITUDE 135.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 10 KM (5 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 2: 1,165 KM (630 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,235 KM (667 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,265 KM (683 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,285 KM (695 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 PM MANILA TIME SAT DEC 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 134.0E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.5N 132.3E / 130-160 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 14.5N 129.3E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 16.0N 128.0E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 DECEMBER POSITION: 14.0N 135.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED
WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122054Z WINDSAT CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WARM SPOT AT 14.0N 137.6E, WHICH HAS AIDED IN
POSITIONING THE STORM...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 13.9N 135.5E / WEST @ 19 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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