Sunday, December 14, 2008

TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) heading WSW... [Update #007]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822] 
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 14 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #014 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA...
MAY BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines  from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should 
closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue tracking WSW to
westward for the next 12 to 24 hours before turning to the WNW tomorrow
morning. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning sharp-
ly NW to NNW-ward as a passing frontal system off SE China breaks the
high pressure ridge north of DOLPHIN. It shall then weaken rapidly into
a 95-kph Tropical Storm on Wednesday Dec 17...down to a Tropical Depre-
ssion on Thursday Dec 18 as it encounters cool dry air from the North-
east Monsoonal Surge off the Northern Philippine Sea. *Alternate
Forecast Scenario: There's a slight possibilty that DOLPHIN shall
continue tracking Westward passing more or less 200 km to the north
of Catanduanes-Camarines Area on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
This scenario is likely possible if the developing frontal system off
SE China is not strong enough to break the high pressure ridge north
of the storm. 

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation has become more radial with dual pole-
ward & equatorial outflows. Its rain bands is not yet affecting any
major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to
100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations
of up to 250 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 14 DEC 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.6º N...LONGITUDE 132.7º
DISTANCE 1: 920 KM (497
NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 975 KM (527 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,005 KM (542 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,025 KM (553 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL STORM 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 978 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 
6 AM PST SUN DEC 14
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z SAT DEC 13

TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 131.8E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.9N 130.4E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.3N 128.3E / 110-140 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.0N 127.3E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.8N 133.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS REMAINED AT ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 27W CONTINUES TO TRACK DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
...
(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK 
   waters, and also a mascot of HK
Name contributed by: 
   
Hong Kong, China.

_____________________________________________________________________________
 
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.9N 133.7E / WEST @ 15 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
   
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________


RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
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