Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002
Name: TYPHOON CHAN-HOM [EMONG/02W/0902]
Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) THU 07 MAY 2009
Source: US JTWC WARNING #015/T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for supplemental information purposes only.
Source: US JTWC WARNING #015/T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for supplemental information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (EMONG) GATHERING STRENGTH AS IT DANGEROUSLY ACCELE-
RATES CLOSER TO PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA. PANGASINAN AND LA UNION
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DAGUPAN AND SAN FERNANDO MUST BE ON FULL
ALERT AS IT REMAINS UNDER SERIOUS THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
*Residents and visitors along Western & Central & Northern Luzon including Metro Manila
should closely monitor the progress of CHAN-HOM.
**Important Note: This typhoon is similar in strength and track of last year's TYPHOON COSME (HALONG)
which passed over Pangasinan on May 17, 2008 resulting in loss of properties and lives.
Click here to view track of COSME.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHAN-HOM is expected to continue moving on a
generally ENE to NE track for the next 2 days, may still intensify prior
to landfall. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast now shows CHAN-HOM passing
RATES CLOSER TO PANGASINAN-LA UNION AREA. PANGASINAN AND LA UNION
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DAGUPAN AND SAN FERNANDO MUST BE ON FULL
ALERT AS IT REMAINS UNDER SERIOUS THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
*Residents and visitors along Western & Central & Northern Luzon including Metro Manila
should closely monitor the progress of CHAN-HOM.
**Important Note: This typhoon is similar in strength and track of last year's TYPHOON COSME (HALONG)
which passed over Pangasinan on May 17, 2008 resulting in loss of properties and lives.
Click here to view track of COSME.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: CHAN-HOM is expected to continue moving on a
generally ENE to NE track for the next 2 days, may still intensify prior
to landfall. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast now shows CHAN-HOM passing
over Lingayen Gulf tonight and shall make landfall over La Union between
1-3 AM tomorrow Friday May 8. It shall gradually weaken upon crossing the
Cordillera Mountains Friday afternoon til Saturday and dissipate off the
northeastern tip of Luzon, or in the vicinity of Northern Cagayan by
1-3 AM tomorrow Friday May 8. It shall gradually weaken upon crossing the
Cordillera Mountains Friday afternoon til Saturday and dissipate off the
northeastern tip of Luzon, or in the vicinity of Northern Cagayan by
Sunday morning May 10. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility
that CHAN-HOM shall veer slightly to the North and just skim the coast
of Ilocos provinces, and make landfall over Taiwan. This scenario is
likely if the predicted High Pressure Ridge off South Korea strengthens
and becomes the dominant steering factor. The scenario remains poor at
this time.
+ EFFECTS: CHAN-HOM's circulation has become organized. Its outer rain-
bands now spreading across Northern and Central Luzon including Metro
Manila and is expected to moderate to heavy rains with winds & squalls
+ EFFECTS: CHAN-HOM's circulation has become organized. Its outer rain-
bands now spreading across Northern and Central Luzon including Metro
Manila and is expected to moderate to heavy rains with winds & squalls
plus thunderstorms. Its inner rainbands and its core (eye and eyewall)
remains over the South China Sea and is expected to approach the coast
of Zambales and Pangasinan late this afternoon or tonight. 1-day rain-
fall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be along the storm's rain
bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center
fall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be along the storm's rain
bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm near the center
of TY CHAN-HOM. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain
alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods,
mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about
by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...accompanied by large and dangerous ba ttering waves...is possible
mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about
by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...accompanie
near the center of CHAN-HOM. Minimal damage is likely on this type of
storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along
storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along
the beach-front areas of Western Luzon & Western Visayas.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (NE) Monsoon temporarily
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak Southwest (NE) Monsoon temporarily
enhanced by CHAN-HOM is expected to start affecting Western Visayas
and Palawan beginning today, as the system moves closer to Western
Luzon. Cloudy skies with possible passing drizzle to occasional rains
and thunderstorms/squalls w/ SW'ly winds not exceeding 50 km/hr is
possible on these areas beginning today until Saturday. Possible land-
slides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods
are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks,
low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Meanwhile, I.T.C.Z
(aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
It shall bring widespread scattered rains and thunderstorms - most
especially in the afternoon or evening.
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.5º N...LONGITUDE 118.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 220 KM (120 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 230 KM (125 NM) WNW OF SUBIC/OLONGAPO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 245 KM (132 NM) SW OF SAN FERNANDO CITY, LA UNION, PH
DISTANCE 4: 250 KM (135 NM) WNW OF CLARK/ANGELES CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 270 KM (145 NM) WSW OF BAGUIO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 6: 310 KM (167 NM) NW OF MANILA, PH
DISTANCE 7: 325 KM (175 NM) SW OF VIGAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 145 KM/HR (78 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 170 KM/HR (93 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 965 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PANGASINAN-LA UNION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 19 FEET (5.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 12 PM PST THU MAY 07
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 00Z THU MAY 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 170 KM/HR (93 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 965 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: ENE @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PANGASINAN-LA UNION
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 665 KM (360 NM)/AVG/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 19 FEET (5.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 12 PM PST THU MAY 07
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 00Z THU MAY 07
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - WESTERN PANGASINAN, LA UNION, AND ILOCOS SUR.
#02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE,
KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, AND ILOCOS NORTE.
#01 - METRO MANILA, CALABARZON, REST OF CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON
including BATANES, MINDORO, CALAMIAN GROUP, AND LUBANG ISLAND.
#02 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, BENGUET, IFUGAO, MT. PROVINCE,
KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, AND ILOCOS NORTE.
#01 - METRO MANILA, CALABARZON, REST OF CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON
including BATANES, MINDORO, CALAMIAN GROUP, AND LUBANG ISLAND.
12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 07 MAY: 16.4N 119.8E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 08 MAY: 17.1N 120.8E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 09 MAY: 18.8N 122.0E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 07 MAY POSITION: 15.3N 117.5E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHAN-HOM) HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON
STATUS BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN RADIAL OUTFLOW
IMPROVED EARLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER
THE PAST 08 HOURS OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING TIME FRAME. THIS
INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS EXPANDED RADIALLY
IN SIZE AND HAS SEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MICROWAVE EYE, APPARENT IN
A 6 AM SSMIS PASS. A 6 AM QUIKSCAT PASS REFLECTED THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TY 02W IS TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE...(more)
>> CHAN-HOM, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
_____________________________________________________________________________
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 07 MAY POSITION: 15.3N 117.5E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHAN-HOM) HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON
STATUS BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN RADIAL OUTFLOW
IMPROVED EARLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER
THE PAST 08 HOURS OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING TIME FRAME. THIS
INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS EXPANDED RADIALLY
IN SIZE AND HAS SEEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MICROWAVE EYE, APPARENT IN
A 6 AM SSMIS PASS. A 6 AM QUIKSCAT PASS REFLECTED THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TY 02W IS TRACKING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE...(more)
>> CHAN-HOM, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 07 MAY: 15.5N 117.9E / NE @ 15 KPH / 140 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
_____________________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER __________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTES:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY CHAN-HOM (EMONG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY CHAN-HOM (EMONG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.
__._,_.___
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe
.
__,_._,___
No comments:
Post a Comment