Friday, July 10, 2009

TD 05W (GORIO) crossing Extreme Northern Luzon... [Update #002]




for Friday, 10 July 2009 [7:46 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 09 2009):

Continuing 3-hrly SMS/Web Updates and 6-hrly email updates on TD GORIO.


NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORIO [99W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 10 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 05W (GORIO) now passing along the NW Coast of Cagayan...bringing moderate to heavy rains across Extreme Northern Luzon.

    *Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte and Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 05W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 05W is expected to pass along the northern coast of Ilocos Norte this afternoon and shall be over the South China Sea tonight as it becomes a Tropical Storm. The 2 to 3-day Medium Range Forecast shows 05W turning WNW and making landfall just west of Hong Kong early Monday morning, July 13 as a dissipating tropical cyclone.

    + Effects: 05W's rain bands spreading across Extreme Northern Luzon. Moderate to heavy rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Partly Cloudy skies w/ light occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squall plus light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, PALAWAN, PARTS OF MINDORO-METRO MANILA-WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri July 10 2009
    Location of Center: 18.5º N Lat 121.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 30 km (16 nm) NW of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 2: 90 km (48 nm) South of Calayan Island
    Distance 3: 100 km (55 nm) NNW of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 4: 100 km (55 nm) ENE of Laoag City
    Distance 5: 215 km (115 nm) SSW of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    General Direction: Coastal Ilocos Norte
    Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Fri July 10
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Thu July 10
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: CAGAYAN, CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, KALINGA, APAYAO, ABRA, ILOCOS SUR, AND ILOCOS NORTE.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 55 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    12, 24, 48  & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 10 JULY: 18.7N 121.0E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY: 19.2N 119.6E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY: 20.4N 117.0E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY: 21.9N 114.0E / 55-75 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 JULY POSITION: 18.5N 122.3E.
    ^...(more)

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    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 05W (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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