Saturday, July 11, 2009

TD 05W (GORIO) - Update #005




for Saturday, 11 July 2009 [6:36 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat July 11 2009):

Just ended the 6-hrly SMS Updates...continuing the 6-hrly E-Mail & Web Updates on TD GORIO (except 12:00 AM).


05W (GORIO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [GORIO]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 11 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 05W (GORIO) accelerates...exits PAR...now threatens Southwestern China particularly Leizhou Peninsula and Northern part of Hainan Island.

    *Residents and visitors along Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of 05W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 05W is expected to become a weak tropical storm today and shall continue moving towards the West or WNW. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows 05W making landfall off Leizhou Peninsula by tomorrow afternoon and shall weaken rapidly into a disturbance as it moves overland across the China-Vietnam boundary by early Monday morning July 13.

    + Effects: 05W's has become smaller with a more compact feature. Its rain bands is expected to reach Hainan Island and SW China later today. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Cloudy skies w/ light to moderate occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squalls plus light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BICOL AND EASTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat July 11 2009
    Location of Center: 19.6º N Lat 116.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) SE of Hong Kong
    Distance 2: 395 km (213 nm) SE of Macau
    Distance 3: 490 km (265 nm) WNW of Laoag City
    Distance 4: 620 km (335 nm) ESE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 5: 625 km (337 nm) ESE of Zhanjiang, China
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
    General Direction: Leizhou-Hainan Area
    Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sat July 11
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Fri July 10
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

    12, 24, 48  & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY: 19.9N 115.1E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY: 20.4N 112.9E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY: 21.4N 108.6E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JULY: 22.0N 104.3E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY POSITION: 19.5N 117.5E.
    ^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W HAS CONTINUED GENERALLY WESTWARD
    INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS
    NOT UNDER GONE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE
    HOURS. INSTEAD, IT HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AS A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE DVORAK
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 FROM PGTW AND 1.5 FROM KNES. THE SYSTEM
    IS ENCOUNTERING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND EASTERLY FLOW
    ALOFT. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
    ENVIRONMENT WITH CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO
    THE SOUTHEAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 05W (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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