Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GONI (JOLINA) nears HK and Macau... [Update #011]

for Tuesday, 04 August 2009 [7:38 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 04 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Tropical Storm GONI (JOLINA).

GONI (JOLINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM GONI [JOLINA/08W/0907]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 04 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm GONI (JOLINA) nearing the coasts of Hong Kong and Macau...no change in strength.

*Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of GONI (JOLINA).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: GONI is expected to continue moving NW-ward...making landfall near Macau early tomorrow morning and shall cross Western Guangdong tomorrow daytime. The system shall rapidly dissipate early Thursday morning.

+ Effects: GONI's slightly sheared circulation has improved somewhat upon moving closer to the coast of Guangdong Province. Rainfall accumulations of up to 200-300 mm can be expected along its southern rainband circulation. Its low-level rain bands continues to affect the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Hainan Island.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue August 04 2009
Location of Center: 21.3º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (55 nm) South of Macau
Distance 2: 125 km (67 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 330 km (178 nm) East of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 4: 865 km (467 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Macau-Hong Kong Area
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Tue Aug 04
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Tue Aug 04
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Tue Aug 04
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:

2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 21.8N 113.2E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 22.2N 112.7E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 22.5N 111.9E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 21.1N 113.8E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND CIRRUS OVER A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POSITION
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM VHHH AND A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED SATELLITE FIX POSITION FROM PGTW. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE PASSAGE OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE ALLOWING 08W TO TRACK
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPOSED TO 20KTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE WARM
WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FUEL MODERATE DEVELOPMENT UP TO
45 KTS BEFORE LAND FALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE REST OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST....(more)

>> GONI, meaning: Swan. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS GONI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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