Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MORAKOT (KIKO) re-entered PAR... [Update #005]

for Tuesday, 04 August 2009 [6:43 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 04 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TS MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 04 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MORAKOT (KIKO) gaining strength as it re-enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...eyeing Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands.

*Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Southern Japan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue moving WNW across the northernmost Philippine Sea reaching Category 1 Typhoon early Thursday. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system passing very close to the south of Okinawa Friday afternoon (Aug 7). On Saturday morning, Aug 9 - MORAKOT shall make landfall along the coast of Eastern China.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's broad circulation continues to consolidate and has started to create a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) while over the warm waters of the Northeastern Philippine Sea. Rainfall accumulations of up to 200-300 mm can be expected within its circulation. MORAKOT is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Moderate to slightly strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO, AND PARTS OF WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON-METRO MANILA-BICOL REGION.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue August 04 2009
Location of Center: 22.3º N Lat 134.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 830 km (448 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,340 km (723 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 1,375 km (742 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Tue Aug 04
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Tue Aug 04
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Tue Aug 04
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

2 AM (12 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 23.4N 133.8E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 24.3N 132.2E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 25.6N 128.2E / 130-160 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 26.8N 124.1E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 22.3N 135.3E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES. ALSO EVIDENT IN ANIMATED IMAGERY IS A
SHARP WESTWARD TURN AND ACCELERATION IN THE SYSTEMS MOTION THAT IS
VERIFIED IN POSITION FIXES BY RJTD AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY TO 40KTS AS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATIONS BY RJTD AND PGTW. AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO BUILD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION BEING GFS WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
OF CONSENSUS AND DISSIPATES IT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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