Sunday, August 09, 2009

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Update #015

 


for Saturday, 08 August 2009 [5:50 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TYPHOON MORAKOT (KIKO).


MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 08 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MORAKOT (KIKO) drifting slowly NNW along the NW Coast of Taiwan or over Taiwan Strait...continues to lose strength due to the terrain interaction in Taiwan.

    *Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

    + Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to re-intensify slightly later tonight as it traverses the Taiwan Strait. Due to its sudden slow movement, the projected landfall over Fujian Province is expected tomorrow afternoon. MORAKOT shall dissipate Monday as it moves further inland over China.

    + Effects: MORAKOT's weakening circulation continues to affect SE China and Taiwan. The storm's inner (rain) bands spreading across much of Taiwan Strait, Taiwan, Yaeyama Islands and Fujian Province, China...with its outer (feeder) bands over rest of SE China and Extreme Northern Luzon and the Ryukyu-Okinawa Islands. Widespread rains w/ violent winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected near its center...while violent winds of 60-80 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands. On the outer bands, moderate to strong winds of 30-60 kph w/ occasional rains, squalls can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT and along mountain slopes on where the core is expected to pass. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Taiwan and Southeastern China today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 65 kph with some few passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat August 08 2009
    Location of Center: 24.8º N Lat 120.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) WSW of Taipei, Taiwan
    Distance 2: 195 km (105 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
    Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 meters]
    Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
    General Direction: Fujian Province, China
    Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.62 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Aug 08
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Sat Aug 08
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Sat Aug 08
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 1 to 3 feet.

  • JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 25.5N 120.3E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNW @ 09 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 26.4N 119.8E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNW @ 13 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 10 AUGUST: 27.6N 119.0E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance / LPA) / .. @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST POSITION: 24.8N 120.7E.
    ^RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A DRAMATIC DROP IN THE
    CENTRAL CONVECTION FOR 09W AS IT MOVES OFF TAIWAN AND BACK OVER
    WATER. THE CENTER HAS LOST A LOT OF STRUCTURE PASSING OVER LAND, BUT
    WINDS REMAIN HIGH AS EVIDENT IN A 080203Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS
    UNFLAGGED 40 TO 45KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTIVE
    BANDING IS STILL EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
    ALONG WITH STRONG EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR,
    AS THE CENTER IS ILL DEFINED, AND POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM
    RJTD AND PGTW. TRACK IS BASED ON A GOOD OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE.
    AGREEMENT IS STRONG THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT THE MODELS EXHIBIT A FAIR
    DEGREE OF SPREAD AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA
    WITH DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL WILL TRACK. THE
    FIRST SOLUTION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND, AND THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FOR THE LOW TO
    RECURVE AND BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
    THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST SOLUTION....
    (
    more)

    >> MORAKOT, meaning: EmeraldName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 24.9N 120.5E / NW @ 9 kph / 120 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO/09W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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