Bushman's Typhoon Blog: CHOI-WAN (15W) now a Typhoon... [Update #006]

for Monday, 14 September 2009 [7:00 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS CHOI-WAN (15W).

CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 14 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

CHOI-WAN (15W) has reached Typhoon strength...moving dangerously closer to Northern Marianas particularly Saipan & Pagan.

*Residents and visitors along the Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands particularly Saipan and Pagan should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to turn WNW and intensify further into a Category 2 Typhoon today and pass in between the islands of Saipan and Pagan late tonight or early tomorrow. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows CHOI-WAN turning more NW-ward, intensifying further to Category 3 w/ winds of 185 kph on Wednesday, Sep 16. CHOI-WAN shall continue gaining strength reaching Category 4 (215 kph) status as it nears the northeastern portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening Sep 18 or early Saturday morning Sep 19.

+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's outer rainbands now spreading across the whole of Marianas...with its inner rainbands approaching Saipan and Pagan Islands. Rains, winds from 60-100 kph w/ passing heavy squalls can be expected within the inner bands...turning to Typhoon conditions across the northern part of commonwealth particularly Saipan and Pagan late today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 300 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon September 14 2009
Location of Center: 15.4º N Lat 148.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 260 km (140 nm) East of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 420 km (227 nm) NE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 3: 1,405 km (760 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,780 km (1,500 nm) East of Luzon, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
General Direction: Saipan-Pagan Islands
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 AM PST Mon Sep 14
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Sun Sep 13
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Sep 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER: 15.9N 147.4E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 15 SEPTEMBER: 16.6N 146.1E / 165-205 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 2) / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 SEPTEMBER: 18.4N 143.2E / 185-230 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / WNW @ 15 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 SEPTEMBER: 19.8N 140.3E / 195-240 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / NW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.7N 148.5E.
^RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH VAST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS A FULLY-DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. TY CHOI-WAN IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTWARD-BUILT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH JAPAN (WHICH IS DIGGING
SOUTH A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED) WEAKENS THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24. AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSES, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. BY TAU 120, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA WILL WEAKEN THE STR ENOUGH
TO ENABLE RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE DEGREE OF AND
TIMING OF RECURVATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BEFORE TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOTION AS THE 131200Z
MINAMITORISHIMA (RJAM) UPPER-LEVEL SOUNDING STILL INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THE
CURRENT POSITION DOES NOT REFLECT THE RECENTLY-AQUIRED 131614Z AMSRE
IMAGE WHICH INDICATES THAT TY 15W IS CLOSER TO 15.4N 148.5,
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND RJTD....(more)

>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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