Thursday, September 10, 2009

TD 14W (MARING) exits PAR... [Update #004]

 


for Thursday, 10 September 2009 [6:51 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 10 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD 14W (MARING).


14W (MARING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [MARING]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 10 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 14W MARING) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...now heading towards Hainan Island in Southern China.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern and Southwestern China & Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of 14W (MARING).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 14W is expected to reach minimal Tropical Storm status tonight, turning more to the West. The 2 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Hainan Island tomorrow afternoon...entering Gulf of Tonkin early Saturday morning Sep 12 and making its final landfall off Northern Vietnam early Sunday morning Sep 13.

    + Effects: 14W's compact circulation remains at sea but shall start to affect Hainan later today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 200 up to 300 mm can be expected along the depression's rain bands.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Light southwesterly winds not in excess of 35 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, & WESTERN MINDORO.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) New Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) developing off the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 11.8N lon 136.5E...or about 1,210 km East of Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving WNW slowly.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 48 to 72 hours.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu September 10 2009
    Location of Center: 18.7º N Lat 115.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 425 km (230 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
    Distance 2: 435 km (237 nm) SE of Macau
    Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
    Distance 4: 595 km (320 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 5: 540 km (290 nm) WNW of Laoag City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    60 kph (33 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 80 kph (43 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0.0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
    General Direction: Hainan Island
    Size (in Diameter): 400 km (215 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu Sep 10
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Wed Sep 09
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER: 18.9N 114.1E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 19 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 SEPTEMBER: 19.1N 112.0E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 12 SEPTEMBER: 19.3N 108.2E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 11 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 13 SEPTEMBER: 19.6N 105.8E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / WNW @ 09 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.6N 116.3E.
    *TD 14W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
    THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
    THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 091730Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND A
    091817Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
    ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
    DATA AND A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF T=1.5 FROM PGTW. MODERATE
    UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS INTRODUCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR NOTED IN RECENT
    SOUNDINGS FROM REPORTING STATIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
    PREVENT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY
    UNTIL ITS EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND AROUND TAU 96. THE FORECAST
    TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EQUATORWARD AND TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
    INCREASED BASED ON CURRENT PROGNOSIS OF THE STEERING FLOW PATTERN
    AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
    FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AND FASTER THAN THE
    NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 14W (MARING)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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