Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 19W (UNNAMED) forms South of Guam... [Update #001]

for Monday, 28 September 2009 [1:24 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG).

19W (PRE-PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W [PRE-PEPENG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 (INITIAL)
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 28 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) south of Guam has strengthened into Tropical Depression 19W (PRE-PEPENG)...moving slowly West...threatens Western Micronesia especially Yap and Ulithi Islands.

*Residents and visitors along the islands of Yap and Ulithi should closely monitor the progress of 19W (PRE-PEPENG).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 19W is expected to continue moving due West for the next 2 days, reaching Tropical Storm status tomorrow morning and shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday morning, Sep 30. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning abruptly WNW to NW-ward, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it passes some 400 km. to the east of Camarines Sur. It shall be about 300 km to the east of Aurora Province on Saturday morning, October 3. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: 19W's circulation has continued to improve with expanding spiral outer bands north and south of the center...its weak northern outer rainbands currently spreading across the Marianas, while its western outer rainbands approaches Ulithi and Yap Islands. Passing rains and winds not exceeding 55 kph may be expected along these outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm can be expected along 19W's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 150 mm near the center of this depression.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains, squalls (subasko) & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, BORACAY, MASBATE, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located east of TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG) remains weak as it tracks SW-ward. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

(2) Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) approaching the coast of Vietnam and continues to intensify with the development of an EYE. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory on this system.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on various tropical systems roaming the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon September 28 2009
Location of Center: 9.4º N Lat 144.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 445 km (240 nm) South of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 715 km (385 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,055 km (570 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,095 km (1,132 nm) East of Surigao City, PH
Distance 5: 2,375 km (1,285 nm) ESE of Naga City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Yap Island-Philippine Sea Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
T2K TrackMap #001 (for Public): 12 PM PST Mon Sep 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Mon Sep 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 9.5N 142.4E / 55-75 KPH (TS) / W @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 9.5N 139.9E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / W @ 24 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 9.8N 134.6E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 19 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 11.8N 130.9E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.4N 144.6E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
(272023Z SSMIS, 272311Z AMSU) AND A 272001Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND TD-LEVEL SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CORE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON RECENT MSI SHOWING DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO SYSTEM WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 (KNES) TO 35 KNOTS (PGTW)
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT IMAGE. TD 19W IS LOCATED WITHIN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW WITH
A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC AND WARM SST/HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES...(more)

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 19W (PRE-PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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