Saturday, September 26, 2009

TD ONDOY (17W) now passing north of Catanduanes... [Update #009]

 


for Saturday, 26 September 2009 [12:16 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 24 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD ONDOY (17W).


ONDOY (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009

12:00 AM PST (16:00 GMT) Sat 26 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • ONDOY (17W) approaching Tropical Storm threshold...heavy rainbands now covering and affecting the whole of Luzon...more intense across the Bicol Region and Polillo Island.

    *Residents and visitors along Luzon and the Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to continue tracking WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. It shall pass more or less 150 km. north of Bicol Region early this morning. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system making landfall just south of Baler, Aurora early Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon passing through Nueva Ecija, Tarlac and Zambales. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Sunday afternoon. It shall reach Tropical Storm status on Monday Sep 28 and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility. ONDOY shall make landfall anew over Central Vietnam, very near Hue City on Wednesday morning, Sep 30.

    + Effects: ONDOY's circulation has been improving as vertical wind shear surrounding the depression relaxes...its thick rainband convection is now spreading across the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila...becoming more stormy across Polillo and Northern Bicol. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 65 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it approaches Polillo Island and Northern Quezon-Aurora today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MINDORO, MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 AM PST Sat September 26 2009
    Location of Center: 14.7º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) North of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 125 km (68 nm) NNE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
    Distance 3: 185 km (100 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
    Distance 4: 185 km (100 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 5: 195 km (105 nm) NNE of Sorsogon City
    Distance 6: 200 km (108 nm) NNE of Legazpi City
    Distance 7: 335 km (180 nm) SE of Baler, Aurora
    Distance 8: 365 km (197 nm) East of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    60 kph (33 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 80 kph (43 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Polillo-Northern Quezon Area
    Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 AM PST Sat Sep 26
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    12Z Fri Sep 25
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA VISCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, RIZAL, QUEZON, CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, BURIAS ISLAND, & POLILLO ISLAND.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: ISABELA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BATAAN, METRO MANILA, CAVITE, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, MARINDUQUE, AND ALBAY.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 AM (00 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.0N 124.6E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 20 KPH
  • 8 PM (12 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.4N 122.4E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 22 KPH
    8 PM (12 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.7N 117.8E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH
    8 PM (12 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.8N 114.0E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.5N 126.6E.
    *AS EXPECTED MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN
    INVERTED, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD HAVE HAMPERED
    AGGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF TD 17W (SEVENTEEN).
    THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAD BEEN BUFFERING HIGHER VWS HAS
    SINCE SHIFTED NORTH, ALLOWING FOR STRONG EASTERLIES TO FILTER IN
    OVER THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ALSO
    BECOME MORE AND MORE EXPOSED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND IS NOW
    LOCATED MORE THAN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION THAT
    IS NOW AFFECTING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PI. NONETHELESS, CONVECTION
    HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF
    THE LLCC AND PERHAPS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND/OR STRONG
    SURFACE CONVERGENCE EVIDENT IN A 250951Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. THE SAME
    QUIKSCAT IMAGE JUSTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC, AS WELL AS THE 30
    KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FEW AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS FROM LUZON,
    IN AND AROUND THE MANILA REGION, REPORT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1005
    MB, WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 05 TO 10 KNOTS. THE
    DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...
    (
    more)

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 PM (14 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 15.0N 123.7E / WNW @ 15 kph / 85 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD ONDOY(17W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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