Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD ONDOY (17W)

for Friday, 25 September 2009 [6:50 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 24 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD ONDOY (17W).

ONDOY (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONDOY [17W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 25 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

ONDOY (17W) remains a Tropical Depression as it nears the coast of Northern Bicol...Its rainbands has been displaced 100 km. west of the low-level center and is spreading across the Bicol Region, Northern Samar and the rest of Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of ONDOY.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: ONDOY is expected to track slightly WNW for the next 24 hours and slowly intensify. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system passing more or less 120 km north of Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon and shall make landfall just south of Baler, Aurora early Sunday morning & cross Central Luzon. ONDOY shall be off the South China Sea on Sunday afternoon. It shall reach Tropical Storm status on Monday Sep 28 and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility. ONDOY shall make landfall anew over Central Vietnam, near Hue City on Wednesday noontime, Sep 30.

+ Effects: ONDOY's circulation remains disorganized due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear aloft...its rain cloud convection (rainbands) has been displaced 120 km. from the low-level center and continues affecting Northern Samar and Bicol Region including Quezon Provinces and is now spreading across the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains w/ winds of up to 55 kph can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands. Stormy conditions is possible if the system rapidly intensifies as it passes north of Bicol Region tomorrow morning. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains or thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri September 25 2009
Location of Exposed Center: 14.1º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) East of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 315 km (170 nm) NE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 345 km (185 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 380 km (205 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 410 km (220 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 7: 545 km (295 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 605 km (325 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Polillo-Northern Quezon Area
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Fri Sep 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Fri Sep 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, CAMARINES SUR & POLILLO ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight (with winds from 60 to 80 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ALBAY, BURIAS ISLAND, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, RIZAL, BULACAN, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & ISABELA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 14.5N 125.7E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.0N 123.6E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.4N 119.4E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 15.4N 115.5E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 14.1N 127.4E.
*RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY EXPOSED TO
THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE PROCESS THE LLCC HAS ALSO
BECOME LESS DISTINCTIVE; HOWEVER, A 250401Z TMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE JUSTIFIES THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
AND IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PI, DUE IN PART TO MODERATE
EASTERLIES ALOFT. BOTH A 250034Z ASCAT IMAGE, AND THE EXPOSED NATURE
OF THE LLCC, SUPPORT AN INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL WITH LUZON NEAR TAU 36. AFTER CROSSING
LUZON AND ENTERING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
POISED TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE CUT SHORT AS THE SYSTEM AGAIN TRACKS OVER LAND (VIETNAM) AT
TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COMPLIMENT A STRAIGHT-RUNNER
SCENARIO AS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
NEXT 60 HOURS...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 25 SEPTEMBER: 14.8N 125.2E / WNW @ 11 kph / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD ONDOY(17W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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