Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KETSANA (ONDOY) lashing Metro Manila & parts of Luzon... [Update #011]

for Saturday, 26 September 2009 [1:13 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat September 26 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS KETSANA (ONDOY).

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 26 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm ONDOY (17W) with international name KETSANA - is now approaching the coast of Baler, Aurora...its mid-level circulation currently making landfall over Nueva Ecija...Heavy rainbands affecting Metro Manila and Southern Tagalog Provinces - bringing widespread flooding.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of Central Luzon this afternoon until nighttime. It shall accelerate further into the South China Sea early tomorrow morning. KETSANA shall weaken into a Tropical Depression as it crosses Luzon. The 2 to 5-day long-range forecast shows the system gaining more strength over the South China Sea as it churns closer to Hainan Island-Northern Viernam area on Tuesday morning. It shall pass very close to the Southern Coast of Hainan on Wednesday morning Sep 30 w/ projected wind speeds of 110 kph. KETSANA shall move into the Gulf of Tonkin Wednesday evening and make its final landfall over Northern Vietnam, SE of Hanoi City on Thursday Oct 1. Rapid dissipation of this system is expected on Friday Oct 02 over Laos.

+ Effects: ONDOY's strong mid-level circulation along with heavy rainbands has shrunked and became more compact bringing intense rainfall with strong winds across Metro Manila and parts of Southern Tagalog Provinces...Scattered rainbands continues to bring light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall w/ winds of up to 65 kph across Central, Western and Northern Luzon. Improving weather conditions has started over the Bicol Region today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along ONDOY's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ONDOY..or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Northern Quezon, Aurora, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Manila Bay & Zambales. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with occasional widespread rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: MASBATE, WESTERN MINDANAO, PALAWAN AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat September 26 2009
Location of Center: 15.6º N Lat 122.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km (55 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 130 km (70 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 3: 165 km (90 nm) North of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 4: 195 km (105 nm) East of Cabanatuan City
Distance 5: 215 km (115 nm) NE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 225 km (122 nm) NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 7: 250 km (135 nm) ESE of Baguio City
Distance 8: 270 km (145 nm) ESE of Dagupan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
General Direction: Southern Aurora-Nueva Vizcaya Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
T2K TrackMap #11 (for Public): 12 PM PST Sat Sep 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 0000Z Sat Sep 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Sep 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, RIZAL, NORTHERN QUEZON, AND POLILLO.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 85 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, ISABELA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, ILOCOS SUR, REST OF QUEZON, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATANGAS, MINDORO, LUBANG IS., MARINDUQUE, CAMARINES NORTE, AND BATAAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.9N 121.4E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / W @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 27 SEPTEMBER: 15.8N 118.9E / 65-85 KPH (Tropical Storm) / W @ 20 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 28 SEPTEMBER: 16.4N 114.5E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 17.0N 112.1E / 110-140 KPH (Tropical Storm) / WNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 15.5N 123.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W HAS INTENSIFIED AS EVIDENCED BY DEEPENED
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE STORM IS ABOUT
TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO LUZON AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM DESPITE AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODING THE SOUTH-
EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM T2.0
TO T2.5. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND
FROM A 252342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 26 SEPTEMBER: 15.0N 121.5E / WNW @ 19 kph / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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