for Friday, 18 September 2009 [12:55 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY CHOI-WAN (15W).
CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 18 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #025
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Typhoon CHOI-WAN (15W) now moving northward...downgraded to Category 3.
*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue tracking Northward to NNE within the next 12 to 24 hours, passing about 255 km. west of Iwo To tonight. It shall again regain Category 4 strength as soon a new eyewall replaces the old eyewall (Eyewall Replacement Cycle). Weakening trend of this typhoon will resume tomorrow. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the howler accelerating NE-ward, passing about 200 km to the west of Chichi Jima tomorrow morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall maintain its decaying phase as it accelerates further to the NNE to NE across cooler seas of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands and shall become Extratropical on Monday Sep 21.
+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remain over warm open seas of the NW Pacific...with its outer bands continues to spread across Iwo To...and across Chichi Jima this afternoon. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of CHOI-WAN or along its Eyewall. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri September 18 2009
Location of Eye: 23.6º N Lat 138.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km (155 nm) WSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 495 km (268 nm) SW of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,765 km (953 nm) ENE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 3
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft (11.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Fri Sep 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Fri Sep 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Sep 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 25.1N 138.7E / 215-260 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / NE @ 31 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
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powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun September 13 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY CHOI-WAN (15W).
CHOI-WAN (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN [15W/0914]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 18 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #025
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Island Group should closely monitor the progress of CHOI-WAN.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: CHOI-WAN is expected to continue tracking Northward to NNE within the next 12 to 24 hours, passing about 255 km. west of Iwo To tonight. It shall again regain Category 4 strength as soon a new eyewall replaces the old eyewall (Eyewall Replacement Cycle). Weakening trend of this typhoon will resume tomorrow. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the howler accelerating NE-ward, passing about 200 km to the west of Chichi Jima tomorrow morning, Sep 19. CHOI-WAN shall maintain its decaying phase as it accelerates further to the NNE to NE across cooler seas of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, just south of Kuril Islands and shall become Extratropical on Monday Sep 21.
+ Effects: CHOI-WAN's dangerous main core (eye & eyewall) remain over warm open seas of the NW Pacific...with its outer bands continues to spread across Iwo To...and across Chichi Jima this afternoon. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 250 mm can be expected along CHOI-WAN's rainbands...
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri September 18 2009
Location of Eye: 23.6º N Lat 138.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km (155 nm) WSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 495 km (268 nm) SW of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,765 km (953 nm) ENE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 3
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
General Direction: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft (11.5 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PST Fri Sep 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Fri Sep 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Sep 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER: 25.1N 138.7E / 215-260 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 4) / NE @ 31 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 19 SEPTEMBER: 28.0N 140.5E / 195-240 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 3) / NE @ 35 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 34.3N 147.3E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / NE @ 52 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 40.6N 159.1E / 75-95 KPH (Extratropical Cyclone) / --- @ -- KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 20 SEPTEMBER: 34.3N 147.3E / 140-165 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 1) / NE @ 52 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 21 SEPTEMBER: 40.6N 159.1E / 75-95 KPH (Extratropical Cyclone) / --- @ -- KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.2N 138.9E.
^THERE IS STILL VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TY CHOI-WAN WILL
CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND
START TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, WELL EAST OF TOKYO,
JAPAN. TY 15W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CHOI-WAN HAS DEVELOPED AN
OUTER EYEWALL, SIGNIFYING THAT IT IS IN AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. AS THE SYSTEM'S INNER EYEWALL DIMINISHES, IT WILL TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING AS THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, IT WILL START TO GAIN MORE POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN
AND PICK UP FORWARD TRACK SPEED AS IT MOVES OVER LESS FAVORABLE
WATERS AND UNDER LESS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 48, CHOI-
WAN WILL BEGIN TO ENGAGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 72 THE
SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION..
>> CHOI-WAN, meaning: Colorful Cloud. Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
____________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY CHOI-WAN (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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