Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) approaching Vietnam...[Update #020]

for Tuesday, 29 September 2009 [5:00 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon September 28 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY KETSANA (ONDOY). Meanwhile, a massive flooding has occured last Saturday across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces and Central Luzon. PAGASA Science Garden in Quezon City recorded a new record rainfall accumulation of 455 mm (17.9 inches) in 24 hours, erasing the previous record of 335 mm (13.2 inches) which fell in June 1967. Click here for a more detailed rain reports from land-based stations..

KETSANA (ONDOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON KETSANA [ONDOY/17W/0916]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 29 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon KETSANA (ONDOY) now along the coast of Vietnam...reaches Category 2 strength.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of KETSANA (ONDOY).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: KETSANA is expected to continue moving West and shall make landfall along Central Vietnam very near the City of Hue early tomorrow morning. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system dissipating rapidly along Laos on Wednesday Sep 30.

+ Effects: KETSANA's circulation has remained large and organized...the core (eye and eyewall) is now approaching Central Vietnam or just along the coast east of Da Nang area...its inner (rain) bands is now affecting Hue-Da Nang area in Central Vietnam. Typhoon conditions w/ winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along Da Nang-Hue Area. While along its outer (feeder) bands, rains and winds not exceeding 60 kph may be expected along other parts of Vietnam, Hainan Island and portions of Coastal Guangdong Province (China) including Laos. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 250 mm can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of the storm...or along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Vietnam and Hainan Island. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue September 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.1º N Lat 109.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 160 km (85 nm) East of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 230 km (125 nm) ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 3: 235 km (128 nm) South of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 835 km (450 nm) SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
General Direction: Central Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 1,480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft (7.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Tue Sep 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Mon Sep 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Tue Sep 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER: 16.2N 108.8E / 175-215 KPH (Typhoon-Cat 2) / W @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 16.3N 107.5E / 150-185 KPH (Typhooh-Cat 1) / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 16.9N 104.9E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance/LPA) / - @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 29 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 16.0N 110.2E.
*ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW WITH WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OUTFLOW HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
ASIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE,
RAGGED EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES BY PGTW, KNES AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TYPHOON
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA TOWARDS VIETNAM. WITH LESS THAN 24 HOURS REMAINING OVER OPEN
WATER, THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PUSHES DOWNSTREAM. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 17W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH HIGHER INDOCHINA TERRAIN. THE FORECAST IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH...(more)

>> KETSANA, meaning: A kind of perfumed tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEM)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY KETSANA (ONDOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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