Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG)

for Thursday, 01 October 2009 [6:16 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Super Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 01 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #015
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Super Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) maintains its 240-kph Category 4 strength as it barrels closer to the Bicol Peninsula.

*Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region and the rest of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to maintain its fast WNW track across the warm Philippine Sea and further intensify reaching to Category 5 strength with winds of 260 kph within the next 24 hours...and shall pass about 185 km. NE of Virac, Catanduanes...200 km. NE Gota Beach Resort, Caramoan...and 265 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC tomorrow afternoon around 2PM. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system slowing down as it approaches the coast of Isabela and Cagayan and make landfall over the area on Saturday afternoon, Oct. 03. PARMA shall slowly traverse Northern Cagayan for about 24 hours and shall move out into the Balintang Channel Monday afternoon Oct 05 and may continue at a very slow pace.Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to move faster across the Philippine Sea w/ its outer (feeder) bands continues to affect Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region including Northern Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ light to moderate winds may be expected along these areas today. Tropical Storm conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph together with light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the eastern coast of Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, & Camarines Provinces tomorrow. While, the flood-stricken areas of Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila will be under the typhoon's outer bands tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the eastern coastal areas of Bicol Region, Samar & Eastern Luzon. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (20W) moving very slowly and threatens the Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed October 01 2009
Location of Pinhole Eye: 12.9º N Lat 128.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 470 km (255 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 515 km (278 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 530 km (285 nm) East of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 560 km (302 nm) ESE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 5: 565 km (305 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 600 km (325 nm) ESE of Iriga City
Distance 7: 620 km (335 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 660 km (357 nm) ESE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 9: 865 km (467 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Isabela-Cagayan Area
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
T2K TrackMap #04 (for Public): 6 PM PST Thu Oct 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Thu Oct 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu Oct 01
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, ALBAY, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, AND AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.7N 127.1E / 250-305 KPH (TY-Cat 5) / NW @ 22 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 15.1N 125.1E / 260-315 KPH (TY-Cat 5) / NW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.5N 122.5E / 250-305 KPH (TY-Cat 5) / NW @ 05 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.4N 121.8E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NNW @ 04 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER POSITION: 12.4N 129.6E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 19W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
AS A SUPER TYPHOON OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
LUZON NEAR TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
BELOW SUPER TYPHOON STATUS AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
LUZON STRAIT. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSING STY 19W TO ENTER A REGION OF
COMPETING STEERING IN THE LUZON STRAIT. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL ON LUZON NEAR TAU 48. GFDN IS THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIER, MAKING LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON, WITH JGSM AND
GFS (AVNO TRACKER) MODELS REMAINING CLEAR OF THE LUZON COAST. AFTER
LANDFALL THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FIELDS, WITH EGRR
AND ECMWF TURNING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND NOGAPS
CONTINUING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS TYPHOON (TY) 20W
(MELOR) TO THE EAST. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DIRECTLY
INTERACT WITH STY 19W, THE UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED INTO THE MODEL
FIELDS BY TY 20W MUST BE ADDRESSED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRESENCE
OF TY 20W WILL MODIFY (IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH) THE STEERING RIDGE FOR 19W, CAUSING STY 19W TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE LUZON STRAIT, OR POSSIBLY TURNING
SHARPLY INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON (AS HINTED BY ECMWF AND EGRR
MODEL TRACKERS)...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.5N 129.1E / WNW @ 24 kph / 195 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on STY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm