for Sunday, 25 October 2009 [6:51 AM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat October 24 2009):
Continuing issuing 6-hrly web, email and SMS advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #044
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) gained more strength as it accelerates away from the Philippines...approaching Okinawa and the Ryukyus (Southern Islands of Japan).
*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NE-ward fast towards the Ryukyus and shall exit PAR this afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT weakening as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone tomorrow afternoon. Complete transition into Extratropical will be on Wednesday Oct 28. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has slightly improved as it accelerates NE-ward. Rainbands continues spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 100 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT especially along the northern part. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan & Taiwan.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], a new one has been observed forming over the Pacific Ocean and is moving West to WNW in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.2N lon 156.5E...or about 1,295 km ESE of Guam...2,345 km East of P.A.R...3,370 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner") into the Philippine Sea, early next week, becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday-Friday, October 29-30 and striking Northern Bicol-NCR-Central Luzon Area on Halloween Weekend, Saturday-Sunday (Oct 31 to Nov 01). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 24.1º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 595 km (320 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 700 km (378 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-200 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 795 km (430 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
T2K TrackMap #029 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Oct 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop .
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 PM (06 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 24.8N 128.5E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NE @ 28 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on RAMIL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat October 24 2009):
Continuing issuing 6-hrly web, email and SMS advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 25 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #044
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NE-ward fast towards the Ryukyus and shall exit PAR this afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT weakening as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone tomorrow afternoon. Complete transition into Extratropical will be on Wednesday Oct 28. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has slightly improved as it accelerates NE-ward. Rainbands continues spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 100 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...
Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA], a new one has been observed forming over the Pacific Ocean and is moving West to WNW in the direction of the Southern Marianas. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 36 to 48 hours...currently located near 1at 11.2N lon 156.5E...or about 1,295 km ESE of Guam...2,345 km East of P.A.R...3,370 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center. The latest (12Z Oct 24) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - shows this system heading westward (aka. "Straight-Runner"
Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun October 25 2009
Location of Center: 24.1º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 595 km (320 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 700 km (378 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-200 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 795 km (430 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 ft (8.8 m)
T2K TrackMap #029 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Oct 25
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 25
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop .
2 PM (06 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 24.8N 128.5E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NE @ 28 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 26.5N 131.2E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NE @ 38 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 32.3N 140.3E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NE @ 70 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 42.9N 154.1E / 95-120 KPH (XT) / --- @ -- KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 32.3N 140.3E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NE @ 70 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 42.9N 154.1E / 95-120 KPH (XT) / --- @ -- KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 25 OCTOBER POSITION: 23.5N 126.7E.
*THE FORECAST REASONING AND TRACK HAVE
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE WARNING NR 043 TO REFLECT A MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM THAT WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) THAT IS
CAUSING TS LUPIT TO TILT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST, ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION WITH A BANDING EYE
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE METSAT IMAGERY WHILE THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD (55
KNOTS) DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN A
241744Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, TS LUPIT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, AS LUPIT STARTS TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GAIN JET SUPPORT. THIS WILL
ENABLE LUPIT TO DEVELOP INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WITH
TRANSITION COMPLETE BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL SCENARIO AND NO
LONGER INDICATES DISSIPATION.
>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 23.7N 126.8E / NE @ 15 kph / 95 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
____________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ )
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
LATEST 24-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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