Thursday, November 26, 2009

Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) - Update #012

 


for Thursday, 26 November 2009 [6:39 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed November 25 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 295 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 210 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 26 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #016 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Extremely Catastrophic NIDA (26W) is now the most intense Typhoon of 2009. Satellite Dvorak Analysis depicts 1-minute sustained winds of almost 300 km/hr.

    *Residents and visitors along the Eastern Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu Nov 26 2009
    Location of Eye: 14.3º N Lat 140.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 445 km (240 nm) WNW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 625 km (337 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,780 km (960 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    295 kph (160 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 360 kph (195 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 905 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
    Present Movement: NW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
    Towards: North Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 45 ft (13.7 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [5.5 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Thu Nov 26

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is currently displaying a well-defined 37-km. diameter round eye, surrounded with a very intense eyewall...and is expected to continue moving NW to NNW for the next 2 days and lose strength. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to Category 4 and start to slow down as it begins to recurve towards the NNE by early Sunday morning (2AM Nov 29: 19.4N 138.2E)...while about 1,670 km East of Batanes Group of Islands. NIDA will start to accelerate NE-ward by Monday through Tuesday and continue to weaken, as increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) affects its circulation (2AM Nov 30: 20.8N 138.5E...2AM Dec 01: 23.8N 140.4E). Based on this forecast, this system is not a threat to the Philippine Islands. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): Less than half of its cluster of forecast models are showing NIDA to turn towards the left...tracking it towards the Philippines on a West to WSW motion due to an approaching High Pressure Ridge off China. This scenario remains poor at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA's southeastern outer rainbands still spreading across Marianas including Guam & Saipan, bringing passing rains with squalls across the area. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Marianas including Guam & Saipan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for STY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 15.4N 140.1E / 285-350 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / NW @ 15 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER: 16.7N 139.2E / 280-335 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / NNW @ 09 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER: 18.5N 138.3E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / N @ 04 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOVEMBER: 19.4N 138.2E / 205-250 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / N @ 07 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 26 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.6N 143.0E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS STY 26W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-
    DEFINED, SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
    THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION SHOWING A
    WELL-DEFINED 20-NM EYE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY OF 160 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FIX OF T7.5 FROM
    PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
    APPROACHES AN AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
    COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY 72 HRS, IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST
    THE RIDGE AXIS AN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
    GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE
    NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF UKMET AND JGSM. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
    DRASTIC DEVIATION TO THE THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE TOWARDS THE
    PHILIPPINES AFTER 24 HRS. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF
    CONSENSUS AFTER 72 HRS...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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