Friday, November 27, 2009

Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) - Update #016

 


for Friday, 27 November 2009 [11:55 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 27 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #021 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Powerful Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) moving slowly northward...weakened into a Category 4.

    *Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri Nov 27 2009
    Location of Eye: 17.4º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 745 km (402 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 445 km (240 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,775 km (958 nm) East of Northern Luzon, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    240 kph (130 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
    Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 42 ft (12.8 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    8 AM PST Fri Nov 27

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue on its slow track and weaken further down to Category 3 as it begins recurvature for the the next 2 days. The 3 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon and will begin to enter the mid-latitude westerly windflow (westerlies) & accelerate towards the NE or ENE by Monday morning (8AM Nov 30: 23.6N 143.8E)...about 2,270 km East of Taiwan or 285 km ESE of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). NIDA will continue to move faster ENE-ward across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and become Extratropical by Tuesday (8AM Dec 01: 29.5N 152.4E). Based on this forecast, this system will no longer enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).  Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA's southeastern outer rainbands still spreading across Marianas including Guam & Saipan, bringing passing rains with squalls across the area. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Marianas including Guam & Saipan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy skies & light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) with occasional rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, QUEZON, MASBATE, & NORTHERN VISAYAS.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for STY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER: 18.0N 139.0E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / N @ 09 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER: 19.0N 139.1E / 220-270 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NNE @ 07 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 29 NOVEMBER: 20.8N 140.5E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NE @ 19 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 30 NOVEMBER: 23.6N 143.8E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NE @ 44 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 27 NOVEMBER POSITION: 16.9N 139.2E.

    *SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA) HAS BEGUN TO TRACK ON A SLOW
    NORTHWARD DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AN EARLY INDICATION THAT
    IT MAY BE NEARING THE CREST OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    EAST. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS
    BEGINNING TO FILL AND BECOME RAGGED. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS
    ELONGATION ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS
    GOOD POLEWARD BUT REDUCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION
    WAS BASED ON THE 262330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW LEVEL
    CLOUDS THROUGH THE 25-NM DIAMETER EYE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
    CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS WAS DERIVED FROM THE
    DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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