Monday, November 23, 2009

TS 26W (UNNAMED) - Update #005

 


for Monday, 23 November 2009 [5:31 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS 26W (UNNAMED).


26W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 26W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 23 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #006 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • 26W (UNNAMED) strengthens into a Tropical Storm...drifting WNW slowly across Western Micronesia.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 26W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon November 23 2009
    Location of Center: 8.5º N Lat 147.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 615 km (333 nm) SSE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,225 km (555 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 2,310 km (1,248 nm) East of Mindanao, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
    Towards: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 PM PST Mon Nov 23

    + Forecast Outlook: 26W is expected to continue moving WNW for the next 24 to 36 hours and will intensify further. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning NW-ward as it strengthens to a Category 1 Typhoon on Wednesday afternoon (2pm Nov 25: 11.9N 143.1E)...passing about 250 km SW of Guam. 26W will maintain its NW track throughout the forecast period, reaching Category 2 status on Friday afternoon w/ winds of 165 kph (2pm Nov 27: 16.4N 139.3E)...about 680 km NW of Guam. It will be approaching the NE boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday afternoon (2pm Nov 28: 17.9N 138.1E)..about 1,700 km east of Northern Luzon, Philippines. Based on this forecast, this system remains not a threat to the Philippine Islands. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 26W is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TS 26W (Unnamed)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 8.9N 146.9E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 9.6N 145.7E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH 
    2 PM (06 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 11.9N 143.1E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 17 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 14.5N 140.8E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 11 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 23 NOVEMBER POSITION: 8.4N 147.9E.

    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STARTING
    TO DEVELOP A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WHILE A MICROWAVE IMAGE
    SHOWS TIGHT CONVECTIVE WRAPPING. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RADIAL OUTFLOW AS 26W HAS DEVELOPED
    AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. ACCORDINGLY THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, RECENT AGENCY FIXES AND
    MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
    NORTHWESTWARD. TS 26W IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
    THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH AROUND 
    48 HOURS. AFTER 120 HOURS, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
    AS THE GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A RECURVATURE SCENARIO WHILE
    THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS OFFER A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAT WILL
    STAY EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 26W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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