Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Typhoon NIDA (26W) weakens into Category 1... [Update #025]

 


for Tuesday, 01 December 2009 [6:33 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 01 December 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #036 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • NIDA (26W) weakening significantly as it tracks Westward slowly...just a Category 1 Typhoon.

    *Cooler dry air, increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) and slightly lower sea surface temperatures are the ones that contribute for the weakening of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue Dec 01 2009
    Location of Eye: 20.0º N Lat 138.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 620 km (335 nm) SW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 335 km (182 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,675 km (905 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    150 kph (80 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Present Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
    Towards: Western Pacific Ocean
    Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Tue Dec 01

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA's forecast outlook has changed...now expected to continue drifting slowly West to WNW and weaken fast within the next 2 days. This system will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning as cold dry air, increasing upper level winds and cooler sea surface temperatures enters and affects its circulation. The 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system becoming an Extratropical Cyclone as it starts recurving towards the NNE on Friday morning (2AM Dec 04: 26.2N 138.6E). This recurvature scenario is due to an appoaching middle-latitude low pressure (aka. frontal system) digging from the north. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) just north of NIDA's ill-defined Eye or along the Northern EyeWall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains and squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, MASBATE AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected on these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
     
  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 01 DECEMBER: 20.3N 137.3E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 09 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 02 DECEMBER: 20.7N 136.4E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / NW @ 09 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 03 DECEMBER: 22.2N 135.0E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / NE @ 24 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 DECEMBER: 26.2N 138.6E / 45-65 KPH (TD/XT) / --- @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 01 DECEMBER POSITION: 20.0N 138.2E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED EYE AND AN
    ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE GREATEST EXTENT TO THE
    WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 301913Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS A COMPILATION OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (90
    KNOTS), RJTD (90 KNOTS), AND KNES (77 KNOTS). THE FORECAST TRACK
    PHILOSPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED SINCE WARNING NR 035. DUE TO
    MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
    TY NIDA IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48
    HOURS. HOWEVER, THE NUMERICAL MODELS NOW DEPICT A LESS ZONAL MID-
    LATITUDE PATTERN AND SHOW AN UPSTREAM MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
    FORECAST TO DIG EASTWARD. THIS DIGGING TROUGH, REFLECTED AT BOTH 500
    AND 700 MB, WILL ENABLE A MUCH-WEAKENED NIDA TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-
    LATITUDES AFTER 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
    TRANSITION INTO A WEAK BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
    WITH THIS FORECAST AND IF THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES EVEN FASTER THAN
    EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS, IT MAY TRACK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTH-
    EASTERLY FLOW AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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