for Wednesday, 21 July 2010 [12:31 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed July 21 2010):
Currently issuing the 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on Tropical Storm CHANTHU (CALOY). The Philippine SMS updates has already ended.
CHANTHU (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph
TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU [CALOY/04W/1003]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 21 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
*Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of CHANTHU.
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information + Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected to resume its NW track and will intensify further as it approaches Southern China's Coast early tomorrow morning [2AM JUL 22: 20.9N 111.7E @ 100kph]. It will then make landfall over Western Gunagdong, west of Macau approx 6AM tomorrow, and cross the mountainous terrain of Southern China [2PM JUL 22: 22.3N 110.6E @ 75kph]. The 3 to 4-day Long-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating off China Friday through Saturday morning [2AM JUL 23: 23.5N 109.4E @ 55kph...2AM JUL 24: 24.6N 107.9E @ 35kph]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CHANTHU will track and cross the central or northern part of Hainan Island tonight -- if the strong High Pressure Ridge building north of Hong Kong strengthens more and steers the storm towards the West. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Jul 21 2010
Location of Center: 18.2º N Lat 113.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km (153 nm) ESE of Qionghai, China
Distance 2: 355 km (192 nm) SE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 435 km (235 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, Hainan
Distance 4: 450 km (243 nm) SSW of Macau
Distance 5: 460 km (248 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 805 km (435 nm) West of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Western Guangdong
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Jul 21
+ Effects & Hazards: CHANTHU's circulation remains intact and intense over South China Sea, with strong winds concentrated along the inner bands' NE portion. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Its outer (feeder) bands is now spreading across the eastern part of Hainan. Light to moderate winds (20-40 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along these bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 85 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...
+ Current ITCZ Intensity: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread afternoon or evening rains w/ strong thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF THE PHILIPPINES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TS CHANTHU (CALOY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201315Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION AND
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AS IT IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH IS CAUSING SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING MORE WESTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS FROM
HONG KONG INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. TS 04W IS
TRACKING ALONG AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT, FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL
WEST OF HONG KONG AFTER TAU 24. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> CHANTHU, meaning: A kind of flower. Name contributed by: Cambodia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.
________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
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> http://www.maybagyo
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