Saturday, July 17, 2010

TS CONSON (BASYANG) - Update #17

 


for Saturday, 17 July 2010 [6:32 AM HKT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 16 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TS CONSON (BASYANG).


CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 017

6:00 AM HKT (22:00 GMT) Sat 17 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #022
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • CONSON (BASYANG) just a Tropical Storm after slamming the southern and SW Coast of Hainan Island last night...now moving across the Gulf of Tonkin, on its way to Northern Vietnam. The northern eyewall and 20% of the eye passed over the resort city of Sanya around 7-8PM.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM HKT Sat Jul 17 2010
    Location of Center: 18.7º N Lat 108.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 85 km (45 nm) WSW of Dongfang, Hainan
    Distance 2: 160 km (85 nm) WNW of Sanya, Hainan
    Distance 3: 190 km (103 nm) WSW of Danzhou, Hainan
    Distance 4: 250 km (135 nm) NNE of Hue, Vietnam
    Distance 5: 345 km (187 nm) SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    Towards: Northern Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 665 km (400 nm) / Avg/Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
    Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 AM HKT Sat Jul 17

    + Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to move across the Gulf of Tonkin today [2PM JUL 17: 19.7N 107.1E-100kph] and will make landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam, just SE of Hanoi around 8PM tonight. It will then pass near the City of Hanoi just after midnight [2AM JUL 18: 20.7N 105.8E-75kph], and will eventually weaken into a Tropical Depression and quickly dissipate tomorrow night [2PM JUL 18: 21.5N 104.7E-35kph].

    + Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) circulation continues to affect Hainan and Vietnam including the Gulf Of Tonkin, with its center now over the Gulf of Tonkin, near the west coast of Hainan Island. Its inner (rain) bands continues to affect Western Hainan...while its outer (feeder) bands spreading across the rest of Hainan Island and Eastern Vietnam. Strong winds (60-90 kph) w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands...while moderate to strong winds (30-50 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of less than 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Hainan, Gulf Of Tonkin and Vietnam. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    + Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL LUZON, BICOL, QUEZON, AND MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    A new and developing small Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) was spotted off the Philippine Sea, east of Aurora...currently located near lat 16.0N lon 123.6E...or about 160 km East of Casiguran...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving South slowly. It will be closely monitored for possible formation into a Tropical Cyclone. This system has a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours..

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Fri Jul 16
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2AM (18 GMT) SAT 17 JULY POSITION: 18.6N 108.4E.
    *TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF HANOI VIETNAM, HAS WEAKENED FROM A TYPHOON AND TRACKED
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION AMASSED MOSTLY ON THE SOUTHWEST
    QUADRANT OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING
    NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER
    AIR DATA FROM HANOI SHOWING WINDS AT AND ABOVE 500 MB TO BE WELL IN
    EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OVER HAINAN.
    THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 161519Z TRMM MICROWAVE
    IMAGE DEPICTING A PARTIAL EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
    BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 55
    TO 65 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND MAKE LANDFALL
    SOUTHEAST OF HANOI BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
    GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST..
    (
    more)

    >> CONSON, meaning: A historical placeName contributed by: Vietnam.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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