Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CONSON (BASYANG)

for Friday, 16 July 2010 [12:54 PM HKT]

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 16 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TY CONSON (BASYANG).

CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph

TYPHOON CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015
12:00 PM HKT (04:00 GMT) Fri 16 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Typhoon CONSON (BASYANG) gained more strength as it tracks more to the NW during the past 2 hours...endangers Hainan Island (China).

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM HKT Fri Jul 16 2010
Location of Center: 17.6º N Lat 110.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 2: 180 km (97 nm) South of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 3: 225 km (122 nm) SSE of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 4: 410 km (222 nm) South of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 5: 615 km (332 nm) SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 6: 645 km (350 nm) SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 245 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Gulf Of Tonkin Area
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 8 AM HKT Fri Jul 16

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to pass near the Resort City of Sanya early tonight and will pass across the Gulf of Tonkin by tomorrow morning w/ projected wind speeds of 150 kph [8PM JUL 16: 17.7N 109.1E-150kph...8AM JUL 17: 18.8N 107.5E-150kph]. The 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam tomorrow night at approx. 8 PM [8PM JUL 17: 20.0N 106.2E-110kph]. CONSON shall very close to Hanoi, Vietnam Sunday morning at approx 3AM HKT [2AM JUL 18: 21.0N 105.0E-75kph] and will dissipate overland along the northernmost part of Northern Vietnam on Monday morning [8AM JUL 19: 22.1N 103.7E-35kph]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CONSON will track NW-ward and cross the central part of Hainan Island later tonight -- if the strong, steering High Pressure Ridge which extends into Eastern & Southern China will weaken. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) circulation continues to improve as it affects Hainan and Vietnam including the Gulf Of Tonkin. Its inner (rain) bands continues to spread across the southern coast of Hainan...while its outer (feeder) bands is spreading across the Hainan Island and Eastern Vietnam. Moderate to strong winds (40-60 kph) w/ occasional to widespread rains can be expected along its outer bands...while along its inner bands - strong winds (60-100 kph) w/ widespread rains is possible.6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 245 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Hainan, Gulf Of Tonkin and Vietnam. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL, QUEZON, AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Fri Jul 16
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8AM (00 GMT) FRI 16 JULY POSITION: 16.9N 110.9E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152359Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A
160027Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON HAVE CONTINUED TO AID IN THE WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY...(more)

>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm