Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Typhoon KOMPASU [GLENDA] moving quickly away from Okinawa... [Update #08]

 


for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [6:15 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA).


KOMPASU (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph

TYPHOON KOMPASU [GLENDA/08W/1007]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #11/JMA RADAR
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Typhoon
KOMPASU (GLENDA) moving quickly away from Okinawa...Typhoon Conditions gradually subsiding across the island.

Residents and visitors along the Islands of Ryukyus and Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of KOMPASU.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:10 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Eye: 27.0º N Lat 127.7º E Lon [RADAR FIX]
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) NNW of Central Okinawa
Distance 2: 445 km (240 nm) NE of Ishigaki, Japan
Distance 3: 935 km (505 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: East China Sea
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 120 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 31

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TY KOMPASU will continue to move farther away from Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands and into the East China Sea...recurving NE-ward with some strengthening expected (possibly reaching Category 3 status) [2PM SEP 01: 31.3N 124.6E @ 195kph]. By Thursday afternoon, the typhoon will start to make landfall over the SW part of North Korea as a Category 2 system [2PM SEP 02: 37.7N 125.9E @ 165kph], and cross North Korea in the evening.

KOMPASU remains a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 175 km/hr (95 kts) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (120 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers (95 nautical miles).

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*

FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Speeds up ENE-ward across the Sea of Japan...becoming Extratropical [2PM SEP 03: 41.4N 134.5E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Becomes Extratropical after crossing the southernmost part of Hokkaido [2PM SEP 04: 40.8N 145.9E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

KOMPASU's circulation has shrunk a little bit after crossing Okinawa. Southern inner bands covering the whole of Okinawa and Ryukyus, as the core moves farther away from the area. Typhoon Conditions gradually subsiding across Okinawa, with Tropical Storm Conditions prevailing...gradual improvement of the weather can be expected over these islands late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (Moderate) near the center of Kompasu or along the southern eyewall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Under Tropical Storm Conditions, storm surge heights may reach 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters) above ground level w/ large and dangerous battering waves...increasing to 6 or 8 feet (1.8-2.6 meters) during Typhoon Conditions. Waves and swells will gradually improve along Okinawa and Ryukyus as KOMPASU moves farther away.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
 
          


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 31 AUGUST POSITION: 26.2N 128.5E.
*THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM 310000Z. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KADENA
AB AROUND 310600Z INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE YET TO
ARRIVE ON STATION. HOWEVER, SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED AN
IMPRESSIVE 44 MB IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS, AND AS OF 310750Z IS AT 911 MB.
THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK OVER OKINAWA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AFTER 010600Z AND
BEGIN TO RECURVE OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
IN THE SEA OF JAPAN. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY KOMPASU WILL INTENSITY MUCH
HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM 09W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY EVIDENCES PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TYPHOON FROM THE STORM. MODEL TRACKERS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND JTWC FORECASTS.
..(more)

>> KOMPASU, meaning: Circinus; a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcsName contributed by: Japan.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

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TS NAMTHEUN [09W] - Update #04

 


for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [7:27 PM PhT]


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powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 31 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS NAMTHEUN.


NAMTHEUN (09W/1008) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NAMTHEUN [09W/1008]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #05/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm
NAMTHEUN (09W) weakens while drifting WSW across the Strait of Taiwan.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of NAMTHEUN.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 25.3º N Lat 120.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 570 km (308 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait
6-hr Rain Amounts (East of the center): 75 mm (Light)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 185 km (100 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 31

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 36 hours)*

NAMTHEUN is expected to track SW within the next 2 days and dissipate near the coast of Southeastern China. This system is having a Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) between Tropical Storm LIONROCK to the SW and Typhoon KOMPASU to the East. NAMTHEUN is forecast to dissipate near the southeastern coast of China after its circulation will be absorbed by the outer bands of LIONROCK by tomorrow [2PM SEP 01: 24.3N 118.8E @ 45kph...2AM SEP 02: 23.6N 118.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

NAMTHEUN's circulation remains disorganized and partially sheared w/ most of its rain-cloud convection located east of the low-level center or near the coast of Northern Taiwan. Its dissipating rainbands will continue to bring rainfall over the northern half of Taiwan tonight. Light to moderate rains w/ decreasing winds not exceeding 50 km/hr will prevail over these areas. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 40 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 75 mm (light) along its eastern rainbands or about 150 km to the east of NAMTHEUN's low-level center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS NAMTHEUN (09W)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0910.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
 
          


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 31 AUGUST POSITION: 25.3N 120.1E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND
RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE LLCC REMAINS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM
07W. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ANALYZED ALONG SOUTHERN CHINA AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TS 07W. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARD TS 07W AND MERGE BY TAU 36. BECAUSE TS 07W IS BETTER
DEVELOPED AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AS
THE TWO CYCLONES INTERACT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL OF THE
TRACKERS SEEM TO WEAKEN AND LOSE THE LLCC BY TAU 24.
..(more)

>> NAMTHEUN, meaning: River, which is one of the tributaries of Mekong RiverName contributed by: Lao PDR.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NAMTHEUN (09W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

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TS LIONROCK [FLORITA] - Update #14

 


for Tuesday, 31 August 2010 [5:51 PM PhT]


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For more details: Text T2K HELP to

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powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).


LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 31 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #17/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

LIONROCK
(FLORITA) has drifted eastward during the past 3 hours...could re-enter the NW portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Residents and visitors along NW Luzon, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, SE China, and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 31 2010
Location of Center: 20.5º N Lat 118.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (157 nm) SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) NW of Laoag City, PH
Distance 3: 355 km (192 nm) West of Basco, Batanes, PH
Distance 4: 450 km (243 nm) South of Xiamen, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southwestern Taiwan
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Aug 31

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TS LIONROCK is expected to track NNE to Northward for the next 24 hours, before turning NW-ward...likely to strengthen to near Typhoon on Thursday [2PM SEP 01: 22.4N 118.6E @ 110kph]. The storm will start moving NW-ward tomorrow evening and will make landfall over Fujian Province, just south of Xiamen City on Thursday morning. LIONROCK will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it moves inland across the mountains of Fujian Province Thursday afternoon [2PM SEP 02: 24.4N 117.2E @ 85kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 95 km/hr (50 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*

FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Downgraded to a depression over Jiangxi Province [2PM SEP 03: 25.6N 115.6E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipated overland, near Jiangxi-Hunan Border [2PM SEP 04: 26.7N 113.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

LIONROCK's strong circulation continues to meander over the warm waters of the South China Sea. If the forecast track goes well, Tropical Storm Force Winds are expected to reach the western coast of Western Taiwan tomorrow afternoon or evening...and over Southern Fujian by tomorrow evening or Thursday morning. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON including METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, PARTS OF WESTERN VISAYAS, WESTERN MINDANAO AND BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
           


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 31 AUGUST POSITION: 20.4N 117.7E.
*SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 07W HAS MAINTAINED GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS INHIBITING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CREATING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH. TS
07W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS LIONROCK IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL AS DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH TS 09W. TS 07W IS THEN FORECAST TO MERGE WITH 09W
BY TAU 36 AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. TS LIONROCK SHOULD REACH LAND BY TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE OVER
LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS
DISAGREE IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TURN THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
..(more)

>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon BayName contributed by: Hong Kong.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


Copyright © 2010 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
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Hobbies & Activities Zone: Find others who share your passions! Explore new interests.


Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.


Get great advice about dogs and cats. Visit the Dog & Cat Answers Center.

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