Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DIANMU [ESTER] enters the Sea of Japan, away from SOKOR... [Update #14]

for Wednesday, 11 August 2010 [6:33 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed August 11 2010):

Strong ITCZ affecting almost the whole of the Philippine Islands (except Northern & Central Luzon). Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS DIANMU (ESTER).

DIANMU (ESTER) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM DIANMU [ESTER/05W/1004]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 11 August 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #014/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

DIANMU (ESTER) regains strength as it enters the warm waters of the Sea of Japan, away from South Korea's Southeast Coast...starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone. Gale force winds prevailing along the southern quadrant of its inner bands.

*Residents and visitors along South Korea and smaller islets along the Sea of Japan should closely monitor the progress of DIANMU (ESTER).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Aug 11 2010
Location of Center: 36.4º N Lat 130.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 205 km (110 nm) NE of Busan, S.Korea
Distance 2: 265 km (143 nm) NW of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 3: 355 km (190 nm) ESE of Seoul
Distance 4: 755 km (407 nm) WSW of Niigata, Japan
Distance 5: 345 km (187 nm) SE of Seoul
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 50 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: NE @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Sea of Japan-Northernmost Honshu
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Aug 11

+ Forecast Outlook: DIANMU is expected to maintain its forward track and wind strength within the next 24 hours. It will become an Extratropical Cyclone tomorrow afternoon upon crossing the northernmost part of Honshu, Japan [2PM AUG 12: 40.1N 139.2E @ 75kph] and will be over the Northwest Pacific Ocean by early Friday morning [2AM AUG 13: 42.3N 145.4E @ 65kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: DIANMU's circulation is now moving into the Sea of Japan. Its outer bands spreading across the eastern portions of South Korea, portions of Kyushu & Shikoku, and the Sea of Japan. Strong Winds of up to 55 kph with higher gusts can be expected within the outer bands of the storm. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 45 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 50 mm (moderate) near the center of DIANMU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS DIANMU (ESTER)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 11 AUGUST POSITION: 36.0N 130.0E.
*THE STORM HAS RE-ENTERED THE SEA OF JAPAN DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. KOREAN RADAR AND TRMM IMAGERY BOTH
SHOW WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING AROUND THE STORM.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TSUSHIMA ISLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN HONSHU
AS WELL AS A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF AN
EXTENSIVE REGION OF GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD.
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 24. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AS INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL BE
OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MARGINAL SST AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36,
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS...(more)

>> DIANMU, meaning: Mother of lightning. Name contributed by: China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DIANMU (ESTER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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