Sunday, August 29, 2010

TS LIONROCK [FLORITA] - Update #07

 


for Sunday, 29 August 2010 [1:24 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)..Meanwhile, a new Tropical Storm (08W) has rapidly developed SE of Okinawa...watch for the new e-mail advisories on that system later this afternoon.


LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 29 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #08/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

LIONROCK
(FLORITA) slows down as it track Northward...center slightly sheared...threat to Eastern Guangdong continues.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 29 2010
Location of Center: 20.2º N Lat 116.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km (165 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) SSW of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 605 km (327 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sun Aug 29

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TS LIONROCK is expected to turn towards the NNW within the next 2 days and will strengthen into a severe tropical storm by tomorrow evening [8PM AUG 30: 22.1N 115.6E @ 100kph]. The center will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong, or just to the east of Hong Kong Tuesday morning and will rapidly weaken [8AM AUG 31: 22.8N 115.1E @ 75kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center of Lionrock.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*

WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Rapidly weakening & dissipating overland as it traverses the mountainous terrain of Guangdong Province, just north of Hong Kong [8AM SEP 01: 23.3N 114.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

LIONROCK's circulation remains slightly organized, with most of its raincloud bands sheared west of its center...Northern outermost rainbands has been spotted approaching the southern shores of Eastern Guangdong including Hong Kong and Macau. Tropical Storm Force Winds expected to reach Eastern Guangdong beginning tomorrow evening. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 240 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) is now TROPICAL STORM 08W...Watch out for a separate e-mail advisories on this new system.

Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1008 MB) organizing to the ENE of Taiwan, now located near Ishigaki Island or about 615 km NNE of Basco, Batanes (25.4N 124.8E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...barely moving at this time. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 92W is now at 60% (High Chance).

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with on-&-off showers or rains can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES). Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
      


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 29 AUGUST POSITION: 19.6N 116.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED JUST EAST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK, NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 282200Z SSMIS 37V IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED EXPOSED LLCC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. TS 07W IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED 575 NM SOUTHWEST OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
LOW LOCATED EAST OF TAIWAN.
..(more)

>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon BayName contributed by: Hong Kong.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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