Monday, August 30, 2010

TS LIONROCK [FLORITA] - Update #10

 


for Monday, 30 August 2010 [11:20 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun August 29 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & e-mail advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA).


LIONROCK (FLORITA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK [FLORITA/07W/1006]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 30 August 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #12/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

LIONROCK
(FLORITA) crawling NNE-ward over the northern part of the South China Sea...no change in strength.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province including Hong Kong should closely monitor the progress of LIONROCK.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 30 2010
Location of Center: 21.2º N Lat 117.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km (135 nm) South of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 515 km (278 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 03 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Aug 30

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

TS LIONROCK is expected to drift slowly NNE for the next 24 hours, strengthening into a severe tropical storm tomorrow morning [8AM AUG 31: 21.6N 117.3E @ 95kph]. It will then start to turn north, closer to the southern coast of Eastern Guangdong by Wednesday morning [8AM SEP 01: 23.2N 117.3E @ 85kph]. On this forecast track, the storm will make landfall over Eastern Guangdong, near Shantou City around noontime Wednesday.

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*

THURSDAY MORNING:  Moving inland across Guangdong Province just as a remnant low pressure...dissipated [8AM SEP 02: 24.3N 116.2E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

LIONROCK's circulation meandering over the northern part of the South China Sea...Northern outermost rainbands continues to linger along the southern shores of Eastern Guangdong. Tropical Storm Force Winds expected to reach Eastern Guangdong by early Wednesday morning (Sep 01). Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of LIONROCK. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1007 MB) slowly nearing Tropical Depression status near the coast of Northern Taiwan, located about 155 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan (25.9N 122.8E)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center...moving WNW slowly. This system might become a Tropical Cyclone within 06 to 24 hours. The 48-hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential for 92W is now at 95% (High Chance).

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some passing on-&-off showers, rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (ILOCOS REGION DOWN TO ZAMBALES) AND BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected. Meanwhile, ITCZ affecting most parts Mindanao.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


External Links for TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
       


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 30 AUGUST POSITION: 20.9N 116.8E.
*MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY MSI AND A 292255Z 37V SSMIS
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 07W APPEARS TO BE
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL LOW (92W) LOCATED ABOUT 460
NM NORTHEAST.
..(more)

>> LIONROCK, meaning: A famous peak in Hong Kong, overlooking Kowloon BayName contributed by: Hong Kong.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS LIONROCK (FLORITA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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