Monday, September 20, 2010

TD 13W [UNNAMED] - Update #01

 


for Monday, 20 September 2010 [5:40 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on the newly-formed TD 13W (UNNAMED).


13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 001

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 20 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression
13W (UNNAMED) newly-formed near Agrihan Island in the northernmost Mariana Island Chain...tracking northwesterly in the direction of the islands of Iwo To and Chichijima.

Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of 13W.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 20 2010
Location of Center: 18.6º N Lat 145.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 380 km (205 nm) North of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 820 km (443 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 2,480 km (1,340 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Sep 20

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

13W is expected to continue moving northwestward for the next 24 to 48 hours...becoming a tropical storm tomorrow afternoon [2PM SEP 21: 21.3N 144.2E @ 65kph]. It will pass very close to the east of Iwo To on Wednesday afternoon as a strong tropical storm [2PM SEP 22: 24.5N 142.2E @ 95kph]....and should turn northward while in the vicinity of Chichijima by tomorrow evening.

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 kts) with higher gusts.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Starts transition into an Extratropical Cyclone as it accelerates to the NE [2PM SEP 23: 28.6N 143.3E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Speeds up towards the NE across the Northwest Pacific Ocean...nears Extratropical status [2PM SEP 24: 34.6N 149.1E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  Becomes Extratropical [2PM SEP 25: 39.4N 159.2E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

13W is still on its early stages as a tropical cyclone...and will continue to consolidate while moving northwestward. Its developing rain bands are currently affecting the northernmost Marianas Islands particularly the small island of Agrihan. Strong winds with rains can be expected along these areas tonight (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TD 13W (UNNAMED)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
         


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 20 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 18.7N 146.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205
NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 200532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A
200335Z 36 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS INDICATING CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS INCREASED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. TD 13W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS
THE STEERING RIDGE NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, HOWEVER, GFS WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SOONER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD IN THE INITIAL TAUS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.
..(more)

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:

*NOT YET AVAILABLE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 
 
RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 


*NOT YET AVAILABLE

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 12W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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