for Tuesday, 21 September 2010 [7:17 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday Sep 20 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 13W (UNNAMED).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 21 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
13W (UNNAMED) strengthens into a Tropical Storm...moving slowly westward.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To and Chichijima should closely monitor the progress of 13W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS CURRENT MONSOON TROUGH (ITCZ) INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread showers, rains & heavy thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Light to moderate SE, East, NE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 21 2010
Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 144.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 475 km (255 nm) NNW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 2: 715 km (385 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1,040 km (562 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,405 km (1,298 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Chichijima Area
18-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Sep 21
13W is expected to move WNW slowly and gain more strength for the next 2 days...becoming a typhoon by early Thursday morning [2AM SEP 22: 20.1N 143.2E @ 85kph...2AM SEP 23: 21.0N 141.3E @ 130kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Turning northward as it passes very close to Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima)...strengthens to Category 2 [2AM SEP 24: 24.3N 140.7E @ 175kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Speeding up towards the NE after passing very close to Chichijima Island...weakens as it transitions into an Extratropical Cyclone [2AM SEP 25: 31.0N 144.4E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further but becomes Extratropical while moving across the Northwest Pacific Ocean [2AM SEP 26: 40.3N 152.7E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
13W continues to consolidate...with most of its thick-rain cloud convection located south of the center. Its developing rain bands are currently affecting the northernmost Marianas Islands particularly the small island of Agrihan. Strong gale-force winds with rains can be expected along these areas today (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 18-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (heavy) near the center of 13W, especially along the southern side. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS 13W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1310.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A 201732Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 201546Z AMSR-E PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TS 13W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE CURRENT STEERING REGIME PERSISTS.
THEREAFTER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND TAU 120, TS 13W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REORIENTS AND EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RELAX. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ENABLE MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, THE CYCLONE
WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
PROVIDE A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. THIS FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IN
ANTICIPATION OF A MORE MERIDIONAL STEERING FLOW PATTERN.
ADDITIONALLY, AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
NECESSITATED INCREASING THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS...(more)
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 18 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 13W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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