for Thursday, 16 September 2010 [7:25 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu September 16 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS FANAPI (INDAY).
FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
TROPICAL STORM FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 16 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
12W (INDAY) is now internationally named FANAPI - a Micronesian word for small atoll islands or sandy islands. This system has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm and is intensifying rapidly while creeping north-northeast...may threaten Taiwan in the next few days.
Residents and visitors along Batanes, Okinawa-Ryukyus-Yaeyema Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT thu Sep 16 2010
Location of Center: 21.5º N Lat 127.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 505 km (272 nm) SE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 555 km (300 nm) South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 635 km (343 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 750 km (405 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 465 km (250 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-2 ft [0.3-0.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Sep 16
FANAPI is expected to just drift very slowly northward within the next 24 hours...gaining typhoon strength tonight [2AM SEP 17: 22.2N 127.7E @ 120kph]. It will then take a sharp westerly turn with increasing intensity & forward speed in the direction of Yaeyama Island Chain and Taiwan on Saturday morning [2AM SEP 18: 23.2N 126.5E @ 140kph].
Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI should continue to gain strength while over warm waters. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center - especially along the eastern side.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Slightly weakens while moving westward across the Islands of Yaeyama [2AM SEP 19: 23.7N 124.1E @ 130kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Enters Taiwan Strait after crossing Central Taiwan...weakens to a Tropical Storm [2AM SEP 20: 24.0N 120.0E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Southeastern China...dissipating over Southern Fujian...just a Tropical Depression [2AM SEP 21: 25.5N 116.1E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
FANAPI's circulation continues to consolidate and has become more compact but with lesser convective rain-clouds along the northwestern side. This system is not yet affecting any islands or coastal areas at this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (Heavy) near the center of FANAPI. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains and heavy thunderstorms especially in the afternoon or evening can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN LUZON, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light SE, northerly to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS FANAPI (INDAY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE, YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF T3.0. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE ABOVE FIXES IN CONCERT WITH A 151715Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOULD
IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE DIGGING TROUGH HAS ALSO
WEAKENED THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW
DOWN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, RIDGING TO THE EAST IN COMBINATION
WITH THE TROUGH WILL ENABLE TS 12W TO MEANDER SLOWLY NORTHWARD. BY
TAU 48, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD AND ALLOW A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM TO BUILD
POLEWARD OF TS 12W AND TURN THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE TOWARD
TAIWAN. ALONG THE WAY, FANAPI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO
MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA. SINCE WARNING 04, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
TAIWAN IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER CHINA...(more)
>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islands. Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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