Saturday, September 04, 2010

TS MALOU [HENRY] - Update #06

 


for Saturday, 04 September 2010 [7:31 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).


MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 04 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #09/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

MALOU
(HENRY) veers to the West...spares Okinawa...now threatens Yaeyama Island Chain and Eastern China. This system will continue to induce the SW Monsoon (Habagat) bringing on-&-off rains across Luzon and Western Visayas including Metro Manila.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Yaeyama Islands, & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 04 2010
Location of Center: 24.2º N Lat 126.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) ESE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 285 km (155 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 535 km (290 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 640 km (345 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Yaeyama Islands-Eastern China Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 120 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Sep 04

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)*

TS MALOU's forecast package has changed and is no longer expected to pass close to Okinawa. The new predicted path will now send the system close to Yaeyama Island Chain and Eastern China. MALOU is expected to stengthen within the next 24 hours while moving WNW - exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later this afternoon, and turning NNW tonight [2PM SEP 04: 25.6N 125.7E @ 75kph...2AM SEP 05: 26.8N 124.2E @ 75kph]. By early Monday morning, the storm will slow down as it approaches the coast of Eastern China [2AM SEP 06: 28.9N 123.0E @ 95kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 20 kilometers (10 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Very near the coast of Eastern China, just to the east of Shanghai...peak intensity reached [2AM SEP 07: 30.2N 122.6E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Losing strength as it accelerates northward into the Yellow Sea [2AM SEP 08: 32.6N 122.4E @ 75kph]
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Just barely a Tropical Storm...approaching the coast of Shandong Province, China [2AM SEP 09: 35.7N 122.6E @ 65kph]

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

MALOU's circulation remain slightly organized while passing well to the south of Okinawa. Its rainbands affecting Okinawa, Ryukyu and Yaeyama Islands. No hazards and effects from this cyclone are taking place as of this time. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (Moderate) near and east of the center of MALOU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON including METRO MANILA, PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MASBATE, BICOL, AND WESTERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
         


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 24.6N 127.7E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS FOLLOWED A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. A 031415Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AND A
031742Z 89 GHZ AMSU PASS CONFIRM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND SHOW
TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLLCC.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
APPARENT LLCC IN THESE TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PREVIOUSLY HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
IMPINGING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TS 10W, HAS MOVED
WESTWARD, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REBUILD OVER THE LLCC. TS 10W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STATIONED OVER JAPAN. AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE, TS 10W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND INTENSIFY AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE COAST OF
EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE YELLOW SEA DUE TO THE IMPACT OF MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES HINDERING OUTFLOW AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT
BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS INDICATE AN ERRATIC LOOPING PATTERN, EGRR AND
JGSM DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA, AND ECMWF
AND WBAR RECURVE THE SYSTEM WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72,
BUT FAVORS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72.
..(more)

>> MALOU, meaning: AgateName contributed by: Macao, China.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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