Saturday, September 04, 2010

TS MALOU [HENRY] - Update #08

 


for Saturday, 04 September 2010 [6:44 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 03 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS MALOU (HENRY).


MALOU (HENRY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph

TROPICAL STORM MALOU [HENRY/10W/1009]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 04 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #11/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

MALOU
(HENRY) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moved quickly Northward during the past 6 hours...now passing just west of Okinawa Island. Monsoon weather will continue to prevail across Western Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Eastern China and Western Japan should closely monitor the progress of MALOU.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 04 2010
Location of Center: 26.0º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 75 km (40 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 370 km (200 nm) ENE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 3: 600 km (325 nm) ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 835 km (450 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: East China Sea
6-hr Rain Amounts (Over the eastern rainbands): 180 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1 feet [0.3 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat Sep 04

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 48 hours)*

TS MALOU is expected to resume tracking NW-ward w/in the next 24 hours before heading northerly across the East China Sea. Some strengthening is likely tonight or tomorrow [2PM SEP 05: 27.8N 125.2E @ 95kph] . On Monday afternoon, while over the East China Sea - the storm will reach its peak intensity...passing more or less 300 kilometers to the east of Shanghai [2PM SEP 06: 31.1N 124.5E @ 95kph].

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 kts) with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 15 kilometers (8 nautical miles) from the center.

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Weakening as it passes more or less 200 kilometers to the west of Cheju Island [2PM SEP 07: 33.1N 124.4E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Entering the Yellow Sea...weakening further as it recurves NNE-ward [2PM SEP 08: 35.5N 124.8E @ 65kph]
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Over North Korea...downgraded into a weak Depression [2PM SEP 09: 38.8N 126.6E @ 45kph]

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

MALOU has jogged NNE-ward as its Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC) was partially exposed as observed on the 5:00 PM Satellite Imagery. The system is having an interaction w/ another circulation (LPA 97W) just to the NE of Okinawa. During the next few hours, MALOU and this other circulation will likely merge into one system. No serious hazards and effects from this cyclone are taking place as of this time, except for rainfall, squalls and thunderstorms being brought about by the storm's convective bands. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 185 mm (Heavy) to the east of the center of MALOU or along its eastern rainbands. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

CURRENT SOUTHWEST MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off rains and thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: WESTERN & NW LUZON. Light to moderate SW winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. Improving weather conditions now occurring across most parts of the Philippines.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TS MALOU (HENRY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1010.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
           


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 25.2N 127.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) CENTERED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC
REMAINS IMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CIRCULATION AREA. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE
PRESSURES OF 996 MB. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW
AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS STILL STRONG. WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS ONE CIRCULATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN TS 10W NORTHWARD. AROUND TAU 72, TS 10W
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TS
MALOU SHOULD REACH NORTH KOREA BY TAU 120.
..(more)

>> MALOU, meaning: AgateName contributed by: Macao, China.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 




> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MALOU (HENRY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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