Saturday, September 18, 2010

Typhoon FANAPI [INDAY] - Update #10

 


for Saturday, 18 September 2010 [8:23 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri September 17 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY FANAPI (INDAY).


FANAPI (INDAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 150 km/hr

TYPHOON FANAPI [INDAY/12W/1011]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010

7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sat 18 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Typhoon
FANAPI (INDAY) continues to become more powerful, now with 165-kph winds...accelerating westward...expected to pass very close to Ishigaki tonight.

Residents and visitors along Yaeyema Islands and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of FANAPI.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 18 2010
Location of Eye: 23.4º N Lat 126.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 235 km (127 nm) SE of Ishigaki Island
Distance 2: 390 km (210 nm) SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 550 km (297 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Miyako-Yaeyama-Taiwan Area
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft (7.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Sep 18

ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)*

FANAPI is expected to maintain its generally westward track for the next two days. The continued intensification of this typhoon will stop once it makes landfall over Eastern Taiwan tomorrow afternoon...and will eventually weaken as it traverses the mountains of Central Taiwan late tomorrow afternoon. Before its Taiwan landfall tomorrow, FANAPI will pass very close to Ishigaki Island on or before midnight tonight. [2AM SEP 19: 23.9N 123.5E @ 175kph...2PM SEP 19: 24.1N 121.4E @ 140kph]. By early Monday morning, the system will weaken into a strong tropical storm as it moves along the Taiwan Strait [2AM SEP 20: 24.2N 119.2E @ 110kph]. It will make its last landfall along the coast of Fujian Province just before noontime on Monday.

Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr (90 kts) with higher gusts. FANAPI is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Intensification of this system will continue until it makes landfall over Taiwan. Typhoon Force Winds (>118 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers (115 nm).

EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Just barely a tropical storm as it moves overland, across the mountains of China, to the north of Hong Kong [2AM SEP 21: 25.2N 115.0E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Dissipated [2AM SEP 22: 26.2N 111.6E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS

FANAPI is now showing a ragged eye with a strong eyewall w/ radial rain bands. Its outer bands continues to spread across Miyako and Yaeyama Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions are expected to begin across Miyako and Yaeyama Islands this afternoon, turning into Typhoon Conditions tonight. On the other hand, Tropical Storm Conditions will start commencing across Eastern Taiwan early tomorrow morning, spreading over the rest of Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon. The eastern coast of Taiwan particularly over the Hualien City area will begin to experience Typhoon Conditions around noontime tomorrow (click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis). 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (heavy) near the center of FANAPI (click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 99W (LPA/1010 MB) which was spotted yesterday off the coast of Central Vietnam has dissipated.

Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA/1008 MB) has been seen on satellite imageries, developing to the east of the Marianas. Located near lat 14.0N lon 156.4E...or about 1,255 km East of Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WSW slowly. The 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential is at 40% (Medium Chance).

CURRENT I.T.C.Z. INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL REGION, VISAYAS AND PALAWAN. Light SW, SE to variable winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected over these areas today.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!



External Links for TY FANAPI (INDAY)


View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1210.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
       


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 18 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 23.3N 126.9E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 15NM EYE AND A 171422Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
AN EYE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND AN
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATING MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. BY TAU 36, TY
FANAPI SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. AFTER TAU
48, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CHINA AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
..(more)

>> FANAPI, meaning: Small atoll islands; sandy islandsName contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART
:


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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
 



> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY FANAPI (INDAY)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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