for Wednesday, 01 September 2010 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 30 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email & SMS advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA).
KOMPASU (GLENDA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
TYPHOON KOMPASU [GLENDA/08W/1007]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 01 September 2010
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #13/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon KOMPASU (GLENDA) strengthened to a Category 3 howler overnight as it races quickly towards the NW...threatens South & North Korea.
Residents and visitors along the Cheju Island, South & North Korea should closely monitor the progress of KOMPASU.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION ANALYSIS & FORECAST OUTLOOK (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 01 2010
Location of Eye: 30.0º N Lat 125.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 405 km (220 nm) ESE of Shanghai, China
Distance 2: 405 km (220 nm) SSW of Cheju Island
Distance 3: 465 km (250 nm) NNW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: Korean Peninsula
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 130 mm (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed Sep 01
TY KOMPASU is expected to turn Northward during the next 24 hours before recurving NE-ward across Korea...some weakening is likely as the system moves into a slightly cooler sea surface temperatures of the Yellow Sea and increasing upper-level wind environment (aka. vertical wind shear). The center will make landfall over the central part of Korea, passing very close to Seoul by tomorrow afternoon [2AM SEP 02: 35.0N 124.8E @ 175kph...2PM SEP 02: 37.7N 126.7E @ 140kph]. The typhoon will traverse Korea late tomorrow afternoon and will move out into the Sea of Japan, as a downgraded Tropical Storm by early Friday morning [2AM SEP 03: 39.9N 130.6E @ 110kph].
KOMPASU is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Current Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 185 km/hr (100 kts) with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (120 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles).
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical as it passes between Hokkaido and Honshu (Japan) [2AM SEP 04: 41.3N 140.9E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Losing strength while moving fast across the Northwest Pacific Ocean [2AM SEP 05: 39.5N 152.4E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed can be expected from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS
KOMPASU's circulation becoming slightly compact with decreasing wind radius. Weather conditions across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands have improved dramatically overnight, however, winds and rains will still prevail over these areas due to the enhanced Southwest Monsoon. The Northern Outer Bands are now moving across Cheju Island. Tropical Storm Conditions will start to reach Cheju later this afternoon...and over SW and Western Korea early tomorrow. Typhoon Conditions will begin to affect Western Korea including Seoul tomorrow afternoon. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (Moderate) near the center of Kompasu or along the southern eyewall. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Under Tropical Storm Conditions, storm surge heights may reach 1 to 3 feet (0.3 to 0.9 meters) above ground level w/ large and dangerous battering waves...increasing to 9 or 12 feet (2.7 or 3.9 meters) during Typhoon Conditions. Dangerous storm surge will be felt across Western Korea beginning tomorrow morning.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0710.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
EYE HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY CLOUD FILLED. A 311703Z 85 GHZ TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
AND INDICATES TY 08W IS EXPERIENCING PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE
AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND
KNES OF 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS STILL
UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTI-CYCLONE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) NEAR TAU 24, THEN CONTINUE TO RECURVE
AND CROSS THE KOREAN PENNINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF SEOUL, SOUTH
KOREA. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ET BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH
IS WEST OF CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OUTLIER AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST...(more)
>> KOMPASU, meaning: Circinus; a V-shaped device for describing circles or circular arcs. Name contributed by: Japan.
RECENT WEATHERUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY KOMPASU (GLENDA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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