for Friday, 22 October 2010 [12:53 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Oct 22 2010):
Just updated the FLASH ANIMATION for MEGI...now at 62 hours! Meanwhile, T2K continues to issue 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TY MEGI (JUAN). TDs 16W is now available...while 17W anytime this afternoon.
MEGI (JUAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
TYPHOON MEGI [JUAN/15W/1013]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 029
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 22 October 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Wrng #037/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Typhoon MEGI (JUAN) re-intensified back to Category 3...drifting slowly northward towards Eastern Guangdong-Southern Fujian Area.
Residents and visitors along Southern & Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MEGI (JUAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 48 hours)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT ENHANCED SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, rains & thunderstorms especially in the afrernoon or evening can be expected along these following affected areas: SOUTHWESTERN LUZON INCLUDING METRO MANILA, MINDORO, PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS, PARTS OF BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW, South winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri Oct 22 2010
Location of Eye: 21.2º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 265 km (143 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 290 km (157 nm) SE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 390 km (210 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 380 km (205 nm) South of Xiamen, China
Distance 5: 430 km (232 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southeastern China (Guangdong-Fujian Border)
24-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 400 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Oct 22
MEGI will start to decay until it makes landfall over Southeastern China tomorrow late afternoon or evening. Its track will start to turn North to NNW later tonight or tomorrow morning. This system will be downgraded to a tropical storm while making landfall in Eastern Guangdong or Southern Fujian Area...and will quickly dissipate as it moves inland through Sunday [8AM OCT 23: 23.2N 118.3E @ 140kph...8PM OCT 23: 24.6N 117.9E @ 110kph...8AM OCT 24: 25.6N 117.6E @ 75kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. MEGI is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). MEGI remains a large-sized tropical cyclone, measuring about 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles) across. 
MONDAY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure or remnants of MEGI off Fujian Province [8AM OCT 25: 26.8N 117.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MEGI's large convective circulation remains healthy with only a slight deterioration of its northern portion due unfavorable, upper-air conditions. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: RAGGED EYE [45-KM DIAMETER] - remains over water (South China Sea), but it is forecast to make landfall very near Xiamen City tomorrow Saturday evening (Oct 23)...between 7 to 8 PM Beijing Time. EYEWALL - remains over water (South China Sea), but the northern eyewall will reach coast of Southeastern China particularly from Xiamen down to Shantou City by tomorrow, Saturday afternoon (Oct 23). INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water (South China Sea), but will reach the shorelines/coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong and Fujian provinces this afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (65-117 kph) can be expected along these areas. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the whole of Taiwan, Southern and Southeastern China. Moderate to strong winds (<65 kph) with passing on-and-off showers, squalls or thunderstorms can be expected along these areas today. 24-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (heavy) near the center of MEGI [view current NOAA's eTRaP graphic]. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Taiwan...and in Eastern Guangdong and Fujian Provinces in China today until tomorrow. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from large swells and Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and Western Luzon in the Philippines today.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY MEGI (JUAN)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1510.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25-NM RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC RING
OF INTENSE CONVECTION. IMAGERY INDICATES SOME PRESSURE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES
AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN ASIA. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE EYE AND TAIWAN
RADAR FIXES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY OF 102 KNOTS (FINAL T 77 KNOTS) AND
THE RJTD/KNES ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS...(more)
>> MEGI, meaning: Catfish. Name contributed by: RO Korea.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE & INFORMATION SERVICE
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MEGI (JUAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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