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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 31 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon TALAS (15W) moving slowly WNW across the Western Pacific...may threaten Southern Japan soon.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed August 31 2011
Location of Center: 26.9º N Lat 137.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km WNW of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 463 km NW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 466 km West of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 944 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1,004 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM JST Wed Aug 31
TALAS (15W) is expected to move NW-ward during the next 24 hours with a gradual turn to the North through 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Moving toward the NW...about 970 km South of Tanabe, Japan [5PM SEP 01: 28.6N 136.0E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Turns NNW to North...threatens Japan...about 289 km South of Tanabe, Japan [2PM SEP 02: 31.1N 135.5E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) radial circulation remains intact except for the southern periphery with the fragmented eyewall wrapping near the large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE LOOSE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 31 AUGUST POSITION: 27.0N 137.1E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH OF
KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A
310511Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND
TRMM IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CENTRAL CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, TS 15W MAINTAINS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. A 31/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING OVER SASEBO AND A STR TO
THE EAST OVER HONSHU. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. TS 15W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD, WEAKEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE, AND
ALLOW TS 15W TO TURN POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY DUE TO
WARM WATER AND GOOD OUTFLOW BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING AS IT
CROSSES OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU. TS 15W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 72 AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TURN. NOGAPS AND EGRR TRACK THE
SYSTEM TOO FAR WESTWARD AS THEY FORECAST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A FASTER TURN AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH GFS, ECMWF, GFDN, AND JGSM...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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