for Sunday, 04 September 2011 [2:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 03 2011):
Now issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 16W (Unnamed).
16W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
TROPICAL STORM 16W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 04 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 16W (UNNAMED) has accelerated very rapidly towards the north, across the open Western Pacific Ocean.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 16W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun September 04 2011
Location of Center: 28.7º N Lat 151.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 607 km NNW of Marcus Island
Distance 2: 991 km ENE of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 1,385 km SE of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 65 kph (35 kts)
Towards: Kuril Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): --- km [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sun Sep 04
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
16W (UNNAMED) is expected to maintain its fast, Northerly track during the next 48 hours... and will remain over the open waters of the Western Pacific.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. 16W is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuation in its strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakening slightly as it tracks across the open sea...about 1,194 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan [8PM SEP 04: 31.9N 151.8E @ 75kph]. MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength and northerly motion...about 1,027 km East of Tokyo, Japan [8AM SEP 05: 35.0N 151.0E @ 75kph]. MONDAY EVENING: Becoming Extratropical as it gain strength...about 869 km ESE of Sendai, Japan [8PM SEP 05: 37.7N 150.8E @ 95kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifying to near-Typhoon strength...approaching Extratropical status...about 460 km South of Kuril Islands [8AM SEP 06: 42.1N 151.4E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
16W's (UNNAMED) circulation continues to consolidate over the open sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Marcus Island. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 55 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of 16W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 27.6N 151.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 35 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME FRAGMENTED
AND DETACHED BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIN CENTER REMAINS INTACT ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND
LAGGING BEHIND THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS IS EVIDENT ON A 032314Z
METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATIONS AND FROM THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD
AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE
EAST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) AND TO THE WEST
OF AN ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, ALBEIT
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
TUTT LIMITING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE STORM IS
BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST...(more info)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS 16W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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