Tuesday, September 06, 2011

TS NORU [16W] - Update #009

 


for Tuesday, 06 September 2011 [12:30 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 03 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NORU (16W).


NORU (16W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL STORM NORU [16W/1113]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009

11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 06 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NORU (16W) veers and accelerates toward the NE...nears Extratropical status.

Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of NORU (16W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue September 06 2011
Location of Center: 38.7º N Lat 149.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 749 km ENE of Sendai, Japan
Distance 2: 929 km ENE of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 3: 767 km South of Kuril Islands
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Kuril Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 40 mm (Low)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Tue Sep 06


1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NORU (16W) is expected to resume a straight Northerly track during the next 24 hours...On the forecast track, the center of NORU shall pass along the Kuril Islands Wednesday morning as an Extratropical Cyclone.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. NORU is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING:  Downgraded to a Depression, as it nears Extratropical status...about 456 km South of Sendai, Japan [8PM SEP 06: 41.6N 149.8E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING:  Becomes Extratropical while passing along the Kuril Islands...about 55 km North of Kuril Islands [8AM SEP 07: 46.4N 150.0E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NORU's (16W) disorganized circulation spreading across the open waters of the Western Pacific. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 20 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 21 to 40 mm (low) along areas near the center of NORU. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 06 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 37.8N 149.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT OVER THE LLCC DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 052202Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION, NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC, DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE TRMM WIND PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE
IS A BELT OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT ERRATIC MOTION ARE BASED
ON THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A SHIP REPORT SHOWING 30-
35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...(
more info)

>> NORU, meaning: Roe DeerName contributed by: RO Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
:

 
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  



> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  




> Image source:
  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NORU (16W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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