WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (LPA) STORMWATCH NUMBER 004
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday 11 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 11 Jan 2013
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) becoming better organized...moving quickly northward across the Philippine Sea. Rainbands continues to affect Eastern Visayas, Northeastern Mindanao.
This disturbance will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring 15-35 km/hr winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to sometimes heavy rains across Bicol Region, Northern Visayas, Southern and Eastern Luzon including Metro Manila today.
Residents and visitors along Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of 94W (LPA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) was located over the Southern Philippine Sea...about 375 km east-northeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte or 413 km southeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...currently moving northward with a forward speed of 37 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 35 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) is expected to move north-northwest to northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours...with a gradual turn to the north throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 94W (LPA) will pass near the eastern coast of Northern Samar on Saturday morning til noontime...passing very near the east coast of Catanduanes on Saturday late afternoon...and should be off the northern part of the Philippine Sea on Sunday...hundreds of kilometers to the east of Cagayan.
94W is forecast to maintain its strength through the next 2 days.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY NOON: Near the northeastern coast of Northern Samar...about 227 km east of Legazpi City, Albay [12PM JAN 12: 13.1N 125.8E @ 35kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 253 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [12PM JAN 13: 18.4N 124.6E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Surigao Del Norte incl. Dinagat & Siargao Islands, Eastern Visayas. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-50 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 94W (LPA).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Fri January 11, 2013
Class/Name: LPA 94W
Location of Center: 10.2º N Lat 128.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 375 km (ENE) from Surigao City
Distance 2: 443 km (ESE) from Tacloban City
Distance 3: 413 km (SE) from Borongan City
Distance 4: 534 km (SE) from Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 5: 618 km (SE) from Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 627 km (SE) from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 7: 657 km (SE) from Legazpi City
Distance 8: 726 km (SE) from Metro Naga
Distance 9: 783 km (SE) from Daet, CamNorte
Distance 10: 993 km (SE) from Casiguran, Aurora
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph
Present Movement: North @ 37 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on LPA 94W...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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