WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM LEEPI (EMONG) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 19 June 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 20 June 2013
Tropical Storm LEEPI [EMONG] approaching Ishigaki-Jima as it maintains its track and strength...expected to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) within the next 6 to 12 hours.
This storm together with Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZON, Visayas, Western Luzon, and some parts of the Bicol Region today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) has maintained its development process while over the West Philippine Sea, west of Zambales. Latest dynamic forecast models continues to show the system becoming a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 1 to 3 days and track northward across the West Philippine Sea. Its developing center was relocated about 430 km east-northeast of Iba, Zambales (15.6N Lat 116.0E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center...remained quasi-stationary during the past 6 hours. This disturbance has a medium chance (30-50%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.
Residents and visitors along Ishigaki-Jima, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of LEEPI (EMONG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Leepi (Emong) was located near Ishigaki-Jima...about 484 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 386 km south-southwest of Naha International Airport, Okinawa...currently moving north-northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Ishigaki-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remained at 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Leepi (Emong) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 935 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Leepi (Emong) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Leepi (Emong) is expected to resume its northward movement within the next 12 hours and turn sharply to the northeast to east-northeast between 24 to 48 hours. It will move further to the east between 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Leepi (Emong) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight or early tomorrow morning...and pass to the west-northwest of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands on Thursday evening. The storm will cross the southernmost part of Kyushu, Japan (over or very near Kagoshima City) on Friday morning...and will move back to the sea, very near the southern coast of Shikoku on Friday evening. On Saturday evening, Leepi will be over the open seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
Leepi (Emong) is forecast to re-intensify during the next 24 hours...reaching its highest wind intensity of 85 km/hr on Thursday. On Friday, the storm is likely to start losing strength as it encounters cooler sea-surface temperatures and land interaction with the Japanese Islands.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY EVENING: Reaches its peak winds of 85 kph as it turns northeast to east-northeast, passing to the west-northwest of Okinawa and the Ryukyus...about 318 km northwest of Okinawa, Japan [6PM JUNE 20: 28.3N 125.3E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Starts losing strength after passing over the southermost part of Kyushu, Japan...just along the southern coast of Shikoku, Japan...about 134 km south of Kochi, Japan [6PM JUNE 21: 32.4N 133.4E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Just barely a Tropical Storm as it rapidly accelerate across the open seas of the Northwest Pacific...about 849 km east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan [6PM JUNE 22: 34.4N 148.9E @ 65kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading near the east coast of Taiwan (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: Ishigaki-Jima. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the North Philippine Sea & Ryukyu Islands. Affected Areas: Eastern shores of Taiwan & Western Okinawa. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and south, and near the center of Leepi (Emong).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed June 19, 2013
Class/Name: TS Leepi (Emong)
Location of Center: 23.5º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 153 km SSE of Ishigaki-Jima
Distance 2: 371 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 386 km SSW of Naha Int'l. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 4: 406 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 409 km SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 6: 424 km SSW of Okinawa City
Distance 7: 461 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 8: 484 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 935 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
_____________________________________________________________________________>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS LEEPI (EMONG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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