for Monday, 11 November 2013 [11:55 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (ZORAIDA) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Monday 11 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 12 November 2013
Tropical Depression (TD) [ZORAIDA] has rapidly accelerated across the South Philippine Sea...towards Eastern Mindanao...Rainbands spreading across much of Mindanao.
Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Zoraida.
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 pm today, the center of TD Zoraida was located over the South Philippine Sea...about 325 km southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental or 540 km southeast of Surigao City...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 37 km/hr towards Eastern Mindanao.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD Zoraida is expected to accelerate west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TD Zoraida will make landfall along the border of Surigao Del Sur and Davao Oriental on Tuesday morning between 8-10 AM...passing across Agusan Del Sur, Bukidnon and Misamis Oriental in the afternoon...and will traverse the Mindanao Sea by evening. It will be crossing the Sulu Sea and Palawan on Thursday.
TD Zoraida will likely intensify within the next 12 to 18 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 55 km/hr by Tuesday morning.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it crosses Northeastern Mindanao...about 45 km SE of Dumaguete City [8PM NOV 12: 9.0N 123.6E @ 45kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Reintensifies slightly as it traverses the Sulu Sea...about 85 km SE of San Vicente, Palawan [8PM NOV 13: 10.0N 117.3E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a TS as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 155 km WNW of Puerto Princesa, Palawan [8PM NOV 14: 11.5N 113.0E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern and Northern Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon Nov 11, 2013
Class/Name: TD (Zoraida)
Location of Center: Near 6.5º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km SE of Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 2: 335 km SE of Metro Davao
Distance 3: 540 km SE of Surigao City Oriental
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 37 kph
Towards: Eastern Mindanao
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 90W (ZORAIDA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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