Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MEKKHALA (AMANG) Update #004

for Thursday, 15 January 2015 [2:07 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (AMANG) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (04:45 GMT) Thursday 15 January 2015
Next Update: Thursday Evening, 15 January 2015

Tropical Storm (TS) MEKKHALA (AMANG) continues with its westerly track as it slightly decreases its forward speed of motion...threatens Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region, with a close approach along the northern shores of Samar on Saturday night.

This cyclone will therefore enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing cooler, windy and cloudy conditions with occasional slight to moderate rains along the eastern sections of Luzon through the weekend..

Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, Southeastern and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Mekkhala (Amang).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Samar, Northeastern Leyte incl. Tacloban City, Eastern and Southern Bicol - beginning Friday evening (Jan 16) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).

Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Rest of Bicol Region Northeastern Panay, Northern Negros, Northern Cebu, Camotes Islands, Rest of Leyte incl. Biliran Island, and Surigao Del Norte incl. Dinagat and Siargao Islands - beginning Friday evening (Jan 16) through Sunday morning (Jan 18).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Jan 15...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS Mekkhala (Amang)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 11.2N 134.2E)
About: 465 km west-northwest of Yap Island...or 925 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and north of the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 830 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): None
Past Movement: West @ 14 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Northwest @ 16 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Mekkhala (Amang) is expected to continue moving westward during the next 24 hours...turning slightly to the west-northwest through the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, TS Mekkhala (Amang) will be cruising along the central to the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea on Friday morning through Saturday morning.

TS Mekkhala (Amang) will slightly strengthen within the next 24 hours...and will keep that strength through 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 85 kph by Friday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens slowly as it moves west across the Central Philippine Sea...about 610 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [8AM JAN 16: 11.3N 131.0E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Keeps its strength as it moves due west to west-northwest across the mid-western part of the Philippine Sea, closer to Eastern Samar...about 260 km east-northeast of Borongan City [8AM JAN 17: 11.8N 127.9E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Maintains the same strength as it turns more to west-northwest...passing near the northeastern coast of Samar...and crossing over Catanduanes...about 20 km north of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM JAN 18: 13.8N 124.2E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu Jan 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 11.2º N Lat 134.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 435 km N of Koror, Palau
Distance 2: 895 km ENE of Siargao Island
Distance 3: 960 km ESE of Borongan City
Distance 4: 1005 km E of Tacloban City
Distance 5: 1120 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT UW-CIMSS/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MEKKHALA (AMANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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