Thursday, December 17, 2015

Low Pressure Area Formerly Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Final Update

 

Low Pressure Area Formerly Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Final Update



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMERLY TS MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 018 [FINAL]

Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Thursday 17 December 2015

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) has rapidly dissipated into an Area of Low Pressure (LPA) near the coast of Western Zambales due to the surge of cold dry Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and the strong southwesterly upper- level winds that blow its deep cloudiness east-northeastward away from its low level circulation.

The LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA) will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing widespread rains with some thunderstorms across the eastern sections of Luzon today. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

*Unless regeneration occurs, this is the final update on Melor (Nona).


CURRENT LPA INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 17...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: LPA formerly TS MELOR (NONA)
Location: Near the coast of Western Zambales...(near 15.1N 119.3E)
About: 78 km west-southwest of Iba, Zambales...or 112 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center...Gustiness: 55 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): None
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: None
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West @ 05 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Southwest @ 22 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Dec 17, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.1º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km WNW of Malolos, Bulacan
Distance 2: 147 km SW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 174 km NNW of Lubang Island
Distance 4: 143 km WSW of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 5: 195 km WNW of Metro Manila



Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 017

 

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 017



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 017

Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Wednesday 16 December 2015
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 17 December 2015

MELOR (NONA) has abruptly weakened into a Tropical Storm as the surge of cold dry of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) affects the system. With the effects of these two weather systems, continuing rainy conditions across Northern and Central Luzon including Southern Tagalog Provinces will prevail through the night.

MELOR (NONA) will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing widespread rains with some thunderstorms across Northern and Central Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan and Western sections of Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of TS MELOR (NONA).


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac, Western Nueva Ecija and Cavite - Tonight (Dec 16).


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 16...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MELOR (NONA)
Location: Near the coast of Western Zambales...(near 15.0N 119.7E)
About: 46 km southwest of Iba, Zambales...or 68 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: North-Northeast @ 08 kph
Forecast Movement: South-Southwest @ 11 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS MELOR (NONA) is expected to move south-southwest slowly within the next 24 hours...and to the southwest sharply with increasing forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday morning (Dec 18).

TS MELOR (NONA) is forecast to continue losing strength over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of the cool dry air of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and will further lose strength while moving over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea, becoming a low pressure area on Friday afternoon (Dec 18).

The following is the 2-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it accelerates southwestward across the West Philippine Sea...about 166 km southwest of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 17: 13.0N 118.9E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure as it accelerates and moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 341 km west of Bataraza, Palawan [2PM DEC 18: 8.7N 114.5E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Dec 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 15.0º N Lat 119.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 120 km WSW of Malolos, Bulacan
Distance 2: 128 km SSW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 144 km NNW of Lubang Island
Distance 4: 145 km SSW of Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 157 km WNW of Metro Manila



Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 016

 

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 016



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 016

Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Wednesday 16 December 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 16 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) continues to lose strength while drifting northwestward slowly. It is expected to change its course towards the west and sharply towards the southwest within the next 24 hours.

MELOR (NONA) will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing rains with some thunderstorms across Northern and Central Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan and Western sections of Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac, Western Nueva Ecija and Cavite - Today (Dec 16).
STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Bataan and Cavite incl. Lubang Island - Today (Dec 16)


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 16...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Off the coast of Bataan...(near 14.6N 119.5E)
About: 117 km northwest of Lubang Island...or 89 km west-southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 130 kph near the center...Gustiness: 160 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 100 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 8 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to Southwest @ 13 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to continue moving northwestward slowly and shortly after it shall move west and to the southwest sharply with increasing forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday morning (Dec 18).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of the cool dry air of the northeast monsoon (amihan) and will further lose strength while moving over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it changes its course to the southwest across the West Philippine Sea with increasing forward speed...about 229 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [8AM DEC 17: 12.9N 118.3E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it accelerates and moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 330 km west-northwest of Balabac, Palawan [8AM DEC 18: 09.3N 114.4E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure over the southern part of the South China Sea...about 574 km west-southwest of Balabac, Palawan [8AM DEC 19: 07.7N 111.8E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed Dec 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.6º N Lat 119.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 161 km WNW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 185 km NW of Batangas City
Distance 3: 194 km NW of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 4: 101 km SW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 5: 161 km W of Metro Manila



Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 015

 

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 015



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 015

Issued at: 9:00 AM PhT (01:00 GMT) Wednesday 16 December 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Afternoon, 16 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has further weakened as it continues to move slowly to the northwest over the West Philippine Sea...expected to change course towards the southwest within the next 24 hours.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing rains with some thunderstorms across Northern and Central Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan and Western sections of Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Bataan, Pampanga, Zambales, Tarlac, Western Nueva Ecija and Cavite - Today (Dec 16).
STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Bataan and Cavite incl. Lubang Isaland - Today (Dec 16)


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 16...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: In the vicinity of Lubang Island...(near 14.2N 119.8E)
About: 62 km northwest of Lubang Island...or 86 km southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: Southwest @ 3 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move southwestward very slowly during the next 24 hours...accelerating significantly through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday early morning (Dec 18).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of the cool dry air of the northeast monsoon (amihan) and will further lose strength while moving over the Southern part of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm...slowly moves southwestward across the West Philippine Sea...about 97 km west of Lubang Island [2AM DEC 17: 13.8N 119.3E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it accelerates southwestward...about 329 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM DEC 18: 9.7N 115.7E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an area of Low Pressure after exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 585 km west-southwest of Balabac, Palawan [2AM DEC 19: 7.6N 111.8E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Dec 16, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.2º N Lat 119.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 119 km W of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 137 km WNW of Batangas City
Distance 3: 157 km NW of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 4: 124 km SSW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 5: 133 km WSW of Metro Manila



Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 014

 

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 014



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 014

Issued at: 2:30 AM PhT (18:30 GMT) Wednesday 16 December 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Mid-Morning, 16 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) emerges over the West Philippine Sea...now passing close to Lubang Island. Rainy and windy conditions to prevail across the Southern Tagalog Provinces today.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing scattered rains with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Cavite, Marinduque, Mindoro, Laguna, and Batangas - Today through Thursday Morning (Dec 17) .
  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Metro Manila, Southern parts of Central Luzon, Southern Zambales, Southern Quezon, and Romblon - Today through Thursday Morning (Dec 17).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern parts of Central Luzon, Northern Palawan, Southern parts of Northern Luzon - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

WINDS
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Western Mindoro, Batangas, and Cavite - Today until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).
STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Batangas - Tonight until Wednesday (Dec 16)


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 PM PhT yesterday, December 15...1500 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: In the vicinity of Lubang Island...(near 13.9N 120.3E)
About: 15 km northeast of Lubang Island...or 39 km southwest of Nasugbu, Batangas
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 165 kph near the center...Gustiness: 205 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West to West-Southwest @ 13 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move slowly west to west-southwestward during the next 24 hours away from the northwestern coasts of Mindoro, turning sharply to the southwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall move faster across the southern part of West Philippine Sea today through Thursday (Dec 17).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken while over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of the cool dry air of the northeast monsoon (amihan) and will further lose strength while moving over the Southern part of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens slowly as it moves west to west-southwest across the West Philippine Sea...about 100 km west-southwwest of Lubang Island [8PM DEC 16: 13.6N 119.3E @ 150kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it turns sharply to southwestward...about 279 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM DEC 17: 10.2N 116.2E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY EVENING: Continues to weaken as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 599 km west-southwest of Balabac, Palawan [8PM DEC 18: 7.4N 111.7E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue Dec 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.9º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 68 km WSW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 2: 76 km WNW of Batangas City
Distance 3: 79 km NW of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 4: 100 km S of Subic Bay, Zambales
Distance 5: 110 km SW of Metro Manila



WPF OBSERVED 1-HR WIND GUSTS and 24HR. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION (near the path of TY MELOR) [As of 2:00 AM Dec 16, 2015]:



Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 013

 

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 013



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 013

Issued at: 8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Tuesday 15 December 2015
Next Update: Wednesday Early Morning, 16 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has weakened slightly and slowed down while traversing Northern Occidental Mindoro...currently over the town of Abra de Ilog. The typhoon has made its third landfall along Pinakamalayan and Pola Area in Oriental Mindoro between 10-11 AM this morning.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing scattered rains with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Tagalog Provinces incl. Palawan should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro and Batangas - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16) .
  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Burias Island, Northern part of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite and Bataan - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northwestern Panay, Northern Masbate, Bulacan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Coron Is. and rest of Camarines Sur - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

WINDS
  • Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Lubang Island and the Coastal areas of Northern Occidental Mindoro - Tonight through until morning (Dec 16).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Northern Oriental Mindoro, Southern Occidental Mindoro - Tonight until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, and Cavite - Tonight until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).
STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Batangas, and Southern Quezon - Tonight until Wednesday (Dec 16)


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, December 15...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the town of Abra de Ilog, Occidental Mindoro...(near 13.4N 120.8E)
About: 16 km southwest of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro...or 49 km south-southwest of Batangas City
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 175 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 06 kph
Towards: Lubang Island-West Philippine Sea Area


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move slowly west-northwestward during the next 24 hours away from the northwestern coasts of Mindoro, turning sharply to the southwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea late tonight through Wednesday (Dec 16) and shall accelerate across the southern part of West Philippine Sea.

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken while over the West Philippine Sea due to the arrival of cool dry air from the north and will further lose strength while moving over the Southern part of the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slowly as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...turns abrubtly Southwest...about 66 km west of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 16: 13.7N 119.6E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it turns sharply to southwest track...about 220 km west-northwest of El Nido, Palawan [2PM DEC 17: 11.7N 117.7E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it continues to move faster southwestward out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 293 km south-southwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys [2PM DEC 18: 8.7N 113.2E @ 45kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Dec 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.4º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km W of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 2: 79 km SE of Lubang Island
Distance 3: 81 km SSW of Tagaytay City, Cavite
Distance 4: 113 km S of Corregidor Island
Distance 5: 137 km SSW of Metro Manila



Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 012

 

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) Update Number 012



WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 012

Issued at: 2:30 PM PhT (06:30 GMT) Tuesday 15 December 2015
Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 15 December 2015

Typhoon MELOR (NONA) has significantly re-intensified before it makes another landfall over the eastern shore of Northern Oriental Mindoro.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Northwestern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TY MELOR (NONA).


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.


RAINFALL

  • Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro and Batangas - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16) .
  • Heavy Rains (50 mm to 100 mm): Burias Island, Northern part of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite and Bataan - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).
  • Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northwestern Panay, Northern Masbate, Bulacan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Coron Is. and rest of Camarines Sur - Today through Wednesday Morning (Dec 16).

WINDS
  • Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Marinduque and the Coastal areas of Northern Oriental Mindoro - Today (Dec 15).
  • Strong Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Southern Quezon, Romblon, Eastern Batangas and Oriental Mindoro - Today (Dec 15).
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Rest of Mindoro, rest of Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Manila, Bataan and Cavite - this afternoon until Wednesday morning (Dec 16).
STORM SURGE
  • Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 6 m (3 to 20 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Batangas, Romblon and Southern Quezon - Today until Wednesday (Dec 16)


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, December 15...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the eastern coast of Northern Oriental Mindoro...(near 13.1N 121.5E)
About: 47 km southwest of Boac, Marinduque...or 103 km northwest of Romblon
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and northeast of the center): 50 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 120 km from the center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 10 kph
Towards: Northern Mindoro


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TY MELOR (NONA) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours along the coasts of Northern Mindoro, turning sharply to the west and southwest through the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea Wednesday morning (Dec 16).

TY MELOR (NONA) is forecast to weaken after traversing Northern Mindoro and will further lose strength while moving over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...turns west...about 55 km west-northwest of Lubang Island [8AM DEC 16: 13.7N 119.7E @ 175kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it turns sharply to southwest track...about 255 km west-northwest of Coron Island 8AM DEC 17: 12.8N 118.0E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it continues to move southwestward out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 212 km southwest of Pagasa Island. [8AM DEC 18: 9.6N 113.1E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Dec 15, 2015
Location of Center: Near 13.1º N Lat 121.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 238 km W of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 2: 192 km WSW of Metro Naga, CamSur
Distance 3: 245 km NW of Masbate City, Masbate
Distance 4: 79 km SE of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 5: 47 km SE of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Distance 6: 165 km SSE of Metro Manila



Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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