Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 009


Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 009

Issued at: 1:15 AM PhT (17:15 GMT) Wednesday 14 September 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Morning, 14 September 2016


Current Status

Extremely catastrophic Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) has started traversing the northern part of the Batanes Island Group. The core (eye and eyewall) is now in the vicinity of Itbayat, Batanes. 

Where is Meranti (Ferdie)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, September 13...1500 GMT. The eye was located over the northern part of the Batanes Island Group (near 20.7N 122.2E), about 30 km northeast of Basco, Batanes or 245 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 280 kph near the center...Gustiness: 335 kph

Where is it heading?

West-Northwest to Northwest @ 20 kph, towards Southeastern China

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands and Northern Cagayan - tonight until Wednesday mid-morning (Sep 14).

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes and Babuyan Island Group, Cagayan and Northern Ilocos Norte – tonight  through Wednesday noontime (Sep 14).

2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to move west-northwest to northwest through the next 24 hours, maintaining northwesterly until the end of the outlook period.On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the Bashi Channel this evening through Wednesday morning…and shall move out of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) around Wednesday noon or afternoon. On Thursday evening (Sep 15), the typhoon will shall be traversing the rugged terrain of Southern Fujian Province.

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to weaken steadily through Wednesday evening with a decreased maximum sustained winds of 220 km/hr.  On Thursday evening (Sep 15), Meranti shall weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm with winds of only 75 km/hr as it traverses Southeastern China.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

WEDNESDAY EVENING: No longer a Super Typhoon as it exits the northwestern border of the PAR or near the Southwestern Coast of Taiwan...about 168 km southeast of Xiamen City, China [8PM SEP 14: 23.3N 119.1E @ 220kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EVENING: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving overland across the southern portions of Fujian Province...about 270 km west of Fuzhou City, China [8PM SEP 15: 26.0N 116.6E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.   .          

FRIDAY EVENING: Dissipating rapidly over China Mainland, just an area of low pressure…about 362 km northwest of Fuzhou City, China [8PM SEP 16: 28.3N 116.5E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 903 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:775 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):220 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Tue Sep 13, 2016
Location of Eye: Near 20.7º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 43 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 261 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 285 km NNE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte 
Distance 4: 288 km SE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan 
Distance 5: 688 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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