Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 008


Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 008

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Tuesday 13 September 2016
Next Update: Early Wednesday Morning, 14 September 2016


Current Status

Extremely catastrophic Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) has maintained its strength while moving west-northwest during the past 6 hours.  The core of this dangerous typhoon is expected to pass over or very close to Batanes Group of Islands later tonightwhere intense, typhoon-force winds, heavy rains and storm surge will be expected throughout the evening. Preparations must be completed now as worsening conditions has just started to set in over these islands.

Where is Meranti (Ferdie)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, September 13...0900 GMT. The eye was located over the Luzon Strait, along the Balintang-Bashi Channel Border (near 20.3N 123.4E),about 148 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 236 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 280 kph near the center...Gustiness: 335 kph

Where is it heading?

West-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards the Batanes Island Group especially Itbayat.

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands and Northern Cagayan - beginning this afternoon until Wednesday afternoon (Sep 14).

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes and Babuyan Island Group, Cagayan and Northern Ilocos Norte - beginning this afternoon through Wednesday morning (Sep 14).

2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to continue moving west-northwest through the next 24 hours, with a northwesterly turn during the end of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the Bashi Channel later tonight…passing over or very close to the Batanes Island Group by late this evening or early Wednesday morning (Sep 14).  The super typhoon is forecast to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday noon or afternoon.  On Thursday morning (Sep 15), the typhoon will make landfall along the Southeastern China, and shall be traversing the rugged terrain of Southern Fujian Province by Thursday afternoon.

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to weaken steadily through Wednesday afternoon with a decreased maximum sustained winds of 220 km/hr.  On Thursday afternoon (Sep 15), Meranti shall weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm with winds of only 95 km/hr as it traverses Southeastern China.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: No longer a Super Typhoon as it exits the northwestern border of the PAR or near the Southwestern Coast of Taiwan...about 76 km southwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2PM SEP 14: 22.2N 119.7E @ 220kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving overland across the southern portions of Fujian Province...about 148 km north-northwest of Shantou City, China  [2PM SEP 15: 24.8N 116.4E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating rapidly over China Mainland, just an area of low pressure…about 53 km northwest of Shantou City, China [2PM SEP 16: 26.4N 115.1E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 903 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 775 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):185 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Sep 13, 2016
Location of Eye: Near 20.3º N Lat 123.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 176 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 2: 276 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 350 km NNE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 4: 410 km SE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan 
Distance 5: 683 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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