Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 007


Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) Update Number 007

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday 13 September 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 13 September 2016       


Current Status

The extremely catastrophic tropical cyclone Super Typhoon MERANTI (FERDIE) has intensified further as it nears the Batanes Group of Islands and continues to seriously threaten the area.

Where is MERANTI (Ferdie)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Sep 13...0300 GMT.  The eye was located over the eastern part of the Luzon Strait along the Balintang-Bashi Channel border (near 19.9N 124.8E), about 319 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 298 km east-southeast ofBasco, Batanes.


How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 280 kphnear the center...Gustiness: 335 kph

Where is it heading?

West-northwest @ 23 kph, towards the Batanes Group of Islands

What areas will be most affected?

Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands and Cagayan - beginning this afternoon (Sep 13)


Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Island Group and Cagayan - beginning this afternoon (Sep 13).


2-Day Forecast Outlook

STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to continue moving west-northwest through the next 24 hours...turning northwest on the remainder of the outlook period. On the forecast track, MERANTI (FERDIE) will be moving across the mid-portion of the Luzon Strait this afternoon through evening and passing over the Batanes Group by late this evening or early Wednesday morning (Sep 14). The super typhoon is forecast to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday mid-morning (Sep 14).



STY MERANTI (FERDIE) is expected to slightly lose strength but remains as a super typhoon through Wednesday morning (Sep 14).  On Thursday early morning (Sep 15), Meranti's strength shall be below Super Typhoon status (155 km/hr) as it makes landfall along the southern coast of Fujian Province, China.

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary*

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Slightly loses strength and remains a Super Typhoon as it approaches the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…182 km west-northwest ofBasco, Batanes [8AM SEP 14: 21.3N 120.5E @ 230kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

THURSDAY MORNING: Further loses strength but still a strong Typhoon as it makes landfall along the southern coast of Fujian Province, China…about 83 km north-northeast of Shantou City, China [8AM SEP 15: 24.0N 117.1 @ 155kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.

FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves inland over southeastern China…about 499 km north-northwest of Shantou City, China [8AM SEP 16: 27.3N 114.3 @ 85kph].Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 310 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 903 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 710 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 185 km from the center.


Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 13, 2016
Location of Eye: Near 19.9
° N Lat 124.8° E Lon
Distance 1: 374 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 324 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 411 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 499 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 710 km NNE of Metro Manila


Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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