Monday, September 26, 2016

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 007


Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 007

Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Monday 26 September 2016
Next Update: Monday Evening, 26 September 2016


Current Status and Outlook

MEGI (HELEN) continues to move in a West-Northwest track…maintaining its speed and strength during the past 6 hours. Its outer rain bands are expected to start affecting Extreme Northern Luzon later today. 

This typhoon is forecast to continue moving West-Northwestward within the next 24 hours in the general direction of Southern Taiwan with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr. It is likely to gain more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Where is Megi (Helen)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, September 26...0300 GMT. The cloud-filled eye was located over the mid-western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.3N 126.6E), about 487 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 560 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan.

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 190 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 21 kph across the western part of the North Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Batanes Group of Islands - beginning later tonight until Tuesday evening (Sep 27).




Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes and Babuyan Island Group - beginning late this evening through Tuesday evening (Sep 27).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY MORNING: Moving west-northwest towardsBashi Channel-East Taiwan Sea area as it intensifies...about 262 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes [8AM SEP 27: 22.6N 123.1E @ 170kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after crossing Southern Taiwan…making its second landfall along the coast of Fujian Province, China…about 63 km west-southwest of Xiamen City, China [8AM SEP 28: 24.3N 117.5E @105kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

THURSDAY MORNING: Moving inland across Southern Fujian through Southern Jiangxi…weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)…about 356 km west of Xiamen City, China [8AM SEP 29: 24.9N 114.6E @ 60kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 210 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 830 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):220 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Sep 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 21.3º N Lat 126.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 498 km E of Itbayat, Batanes 
Distance 2: 649 km NE of 
Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 654 km NE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 4: 664 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 947 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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