Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 009


Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 009

Issued at: 12:15 AM PhT (16:15 GMT) Tuesday 27 September 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Morning, 27 September 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) has weakened slightly as it accelerates West-Northwest across the western part of the North Philippine Sea…endangers Taiwan. Its Southwestern Outer Rainbands continues to spread and affect Batanes Group of Islands.

This typhoon is forecast to continue moving West-Northwest at an increased forward speed of 24 kph within the next 24 hours. Its core (eye & eyewall) is expected to make landfall along Eastern Taiwan around noon today.  MEGI (HELEN) is most likely to lose strength as it starts interacting with the mountains of Taiwan.

Meanwhile, a sudden enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) was observed during the past 06 hours, therefore, will bring occasional rains and gusty winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across MiMaRoPa, Visayas and Western Mindanao. Sea travel at this time will be risky across the area.

Where is Megi (Helen)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, September 26...1500 GMT.  The eye was located over the westernmost part of the North Philippine Sea (near 22.2N 124.8E), about340 km northeast of Basco, Batanes or 390 km southeast of Hualien City, Taiwan. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 190 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 20 kph, towards the East Taiwan Sea and Southeastern Taiwan Area.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Batanes Group of Islands – now until Tuesday evening (Sep 27).



Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 meters (3 to 10 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes and Babuyan Island Group – now until Tuesday evening (Sep 27).

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY EVENING: Emerges along the west coast of Taiwan and  just a Tropical Storm (TS) after crossing the rugged terrain of Southern Taiwan...about 145 km north of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [8PM SEP 27: 23.9N 120.2E @ 110kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Moving overland across Fujian Province after making its last landfall over Southeastern China, weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)…about 161 km north-northwest of Shantou City, China [8PM SEP 28: 24.8N 116.3E @ 60kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 320 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 845 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):220 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.2º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 274 km SSE of Ishigakijima, Japan 
Distance 2: 342 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 466 km ESE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 4: 483 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 921 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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